It's All on The Table Now

Whether we look at markets, the economy, or our current political circus, it's all on the table now.

The paid and reliable public sources we typically consult in our financial work have been all over the map for weeks now. In the last week or so, we found everything on the table: a continuing stock market bull, an impending bear market - either in the fall or for sure in 2025. That's just stocks.

Bonds seem to be heading up a bit. So opinions offered range from a very short-term correction in the ongoing long-term bond bear market, to an extended upswing in bond prices (rates therefore inversely falling), to an occasional view that bonds really haven't begun a long-term bear market. (The latter is rare, but you can find it.)

Gold has risen too far, and is due for a major correction - which began this week. Or, the correction will be brief and shallow - despite this being the typical slow season for gold. Or, the correction will not gain traction, signalling a bull market continuance that will take the price of gold to...well, we'd rather not pass on some of the more extreme prognostications.

And let's not forget our venerable U.S. dollar. The usual suspects continue to warn of a collapse of the dollar, with a loss of its reserve currency status. That opinion has attracted a wider following with the government's insane deficits, and commensurate rocketing national debt. The usual suspects on the other side insist the dollar cannot - as in can not - lose its reserve currency status. It's the only game in town. And the almighty dollar is backed by the almighty U.S. government's economy, financial markets and - most critically - unparalleled military strength.

When it comes to market and the dollar, it's all on the table.

As for the economy, the recent 2.8% rise in GDP surprised...er, who exactly? Well, those who have already come out with the view that we're already in a recession for starters. Add those who follow the government's statistics re GDP and believe that our economy really is great, although it could be better. Those folks found the 2.8% above consensus reading as a sign that they've been right all along.

Then there's us. We who have to work for a living, and who have to buy stuff to eat, to wear, and pay for our living quarters. Whether the government's GDP reading, or it's claims of low unemployment, or even the opinion that deficits - and the national debt - don't matter are true, none of this gives any solace when we dig into our pockets and shell out what we need to in order to keep our heads above water.

The fact that all these opposing views are on the table does nothing to help us regular folks.

Frankly, it's almost not worth spending much time debating the state of the economy if we're normal folks trying to earn a living. 

Then there's politics.

(Deep breath.)

What can you say? Trump almost assassinated. Biden finally ending his ridiculous run for a second term. Harris's crowning before the Dem convention. It's all on the table. 

But here's the thing. Does any of it make any sense? Is Trump really a slam dunk? Well, one side of our deeply divided country thinks so. 

 Is Harris really going to sweep all the other side off their feet and cause them to stampede to the polls? They on the other side sure seem to think so.

So which is it?

And which party will come out on top in the races for the House and the Senate?

Better still: Does it really - really - matter? Sure there are some individual issues that one side will prioritize vs. the other. But will either really make things better for us in the near term - or the long-term for that matter?

If you try to answer any of those questions, good luck. And please let us know what you come up with, OK?