"So Let It Be Written, So Let It Be Done" - Getting Ready for The Wild Ride To Come

"So let it be written, so let it be done": a famous line from Cecil B. DeMille's "Ten Commandments," starring Charlton Heston. We all remember that, right. We'll see how apropos these words have been in a moment. But first...

Labor Day weekend wraps up August and launches September. If we're sane, we're getting some weekend holiday respite, in addition to the usual respite given us on our Sundays - the Lord's Day, a day of rest. (Remember that? It was so growing up; it still is!)

The break and any rest we can garner will serve us well. The "wild ride" should begin sometime soon and accompany us through October.

Okay, so it's a prediction. But it's not like we haven't seen this all before. The last time we had a Big One was 2008. That's 16 years ago! And with the passage of time, we become more and more complacent and convinced that between the government spending like drunken sailors and the Fed keeping the flow of cheap money flowing, disaster can't possible spoil the party, right?

Maybe.

Or maybe not. Maybe there's still some juice left in reality. And reality, if it still has juice, comes with consequences for any action taken. That means the drunken spending and free money have consequences. And those consequences are not a continuing joy ride for the markets.

So even though predictions are not our cup of tea, it can't be all that much of a prediction if reality is reality and reality asserts itself - which is the source of the belief that we're in for a wild ride.

Now, the wild ride really isn't so hard to fathom. It's the timing that's the dicey part. Frankly, we expected a wild ride ride last fall. But no, the forces of unreality had their way yet again. And who knows, perhaps they have one more good kick of the can left in them this to-round.

Or perhaps not.

So with the "perhaps not" in mind, we'll relax, enjoy the holiday, and steel ourselves.

Regarding the question of timing, this gets us back to "So let it be written, so let it be done." Nothing to do with "Ten Commandments" or any other movie. It's go to do with predictions and timing.

One of our Brain Trust folks has been pretty good at calling turns in the market for months now. (Frankly, he's got a pretty good track record dating back decades.) While the turns drive his trading service recommendations, the letter we subscribe to is a more global, bigger trend publication. We get the predictions as part of that service, but usually without the specific stock or ETF recommendations, with some exceptions.

In any case, going into August, his view was that we'd see the rally of late summer hit a top in the market. Reporting on various indices, his specific statement - a bit over a week ago, was that we needed to see one of the Big Three (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ) hit an all-time high. Within days, the Dow complied.

The importance? According to our source, this would mark the top and set the stage for: a significant stock market correction or, a deep, dramatic correction, or the beginning of a longer-term Bear Market. Oh, and he's been touting a recession of almost a year now. Yes, in the face of all the "official" statistics, he's simply contradicted the claims of a strong economy and noted his reasons that the economy is already in recession.

We've learned not to go against this guy, although he's not always perfect. What that means is that we're remaining in our defensive posture, even as the market seems to be churning higher and higher, with Bulls carrying the day.

More so, with this latest prediction, and his preceding analysis stretching over not just months, but a couple of years, when the other shoe drops, we'll be enveloped in some rough times - not that many of our fellow countrymen aren't already there.

So with his "So let it be written, so let it be done" burned into our brain, we're already ready for a wild ride. And with that, we'll take our holiday weekend and savor it while we can.