Fall Arrives For the Markets: The Contrasting Views We'll Be Hearing From Now On

Fall arrives as Labor Day fades into the past.

OK, so it's not officially autumn yet. But we all know that our customary view is that Labor Day marks the dividing line between summer and fall. So there.

And with the arrival of fall, we all face what may be a dramatic change in the stock and bond markets. Or maybe not.

We're not trying to hem and haw here, or set up a world of self-contradiction where we drive ourselves crazy thinking disaster looms - or maybe it doesn't. We're just reflecting the views of those trusted sources we typically follow, views which don't always line up on the same side of the fence. 

But even as our trusted sources don't always agree, we rarely see the current contrast that's pulling us this way and that. 

A quick and dirty summary of that contrast would be: 

Our indicators tell us the stock market is going to take us for a wild ride that likely results in a significant downturn if not a full-fledged Bear Market.

versus

All of our indicators show that the stock market upsurge to new highs will continue now into the fall. So at the very least hold your stock positions, if not add to them.

Can the contrast here be more stark? Who's right?

Well, if we knew how to infallibly determine the answer to this question we'd be rich. Our financial struggles would be long gone. We'd be walking on Easy Street, joining the always upbeat happy company of the rich and famous as we donned our top hat and grabbed our silver tipped walking cane to venture out onto Park Avenue.

Not that we'd really do all that, or desire the company of such people (who, by the way aren't all really as upbeat and happy as they purport to be - and this we know from experience). Frankly, we'd prefer the company of our family and the few good friends we currently have. Genuine folks bound in some fashion by familial and fraternal love beats money hands down, right?

But that doesn't answer the question of who's right. And the fact is, who knows? (as we answer a question with a question.)

The lack of a definitive answer thus causes us to be cautious and defensive. And that will likely lead to disappointing results for our clients' portfolios if the stock market indeed continues to race higher.

On the other hand, if the disastrous scenario unfolds, we may be elected President in November.

Ah, such is life in the daunting realm of the Markets. You never know what the next day brings.

Meanwhile, having hunkered down, we'll shake off our willies and try to settle down into our daily routine and just observe - at least until there's some clarity offered by the real world, as opposed to the theoretical speculations and prognostications of those who are paid to provide same.

Ideally, we'll stick to this plan even as we hear a continuous din from either side, a din that will last until the other shoe drops - or it doesn't.

Although, even if it does drop, the din will not die. At the point of a stock market drop, we'll likely be greeted with a new round of contrasting views: "It's a buying opportunity!" or "Don't catch a falling knife!"...

...or words to that effect.

Darn these contrasting views! They never seem to agree. And they never go away.