Friday Again - And Still No Crisis or Crash

Crisis. Crash. These are the happy words put out there by the contingent of "experts" who believe things are "off" - to say the least - in the markets and the economy.

So far, no crisis, no crash.

The jobs report today was deemed a "blockbuster." So the economy's not tanking - at least that's what the other contingent says. Indeed, it's time to rejoice. Things are lookin' up, baby.

In any case, no crisis, no crash.

So is the contingent that's been warning us for, well, not weeks, not months, but more than a year (some even longer) crazy, dumb, paranoid, plain old doom-and-gloomers? Well, some are. They get their kicks talking up the end of the world. 

But there's a contingent within that contingent that is simply reasonable, normal, professional, etc. They're up for an up market, bud down on one that's going down. We're familiar with a bunch of these folks. One wonders what they're thinking on this Friday night.

Maybe they're just sitting tight and staying safe. That's basically what we're doing. Better safe than sorry.

And as for that jobs report, we've talked about past jobs reports. And you should know that these jobs reports are simply not what they seem to be.

For example, it seems that for a number of years now, there has been no increase in jobs for native-born, legal Americans. The jobs have gone to immigrants over that stretch - legal and illegal. 

And it seems that jobs are counted in an odd manner, to say the least. It seems that if you hold 4 jobs to hold your life together because you can't get a real job, those four jobs count as - you got it - four jobs. And that doesn't mean that four people got a job, of course. 

So we don't pay any mind to the jobs report from a "real world" perspective. 

Of course, smart traders and others who have the will and the skill to speculate may take advantage of the jobs report news. The stock market did jump, after all. But not having the skills or the stomach to throw hard-earned money at phony news designed to manipulate markets and, of course, the voters (Remember, it's an election year. Right?), we just shake our heads and focus on what makes sense. 

So what makes sense?

Well, the stock market is at historically high valuations. The bull market that began in 2009 is - by any definition - long in the tooth. At historic highs, there's a lot of air below.

At the end of the day, we'll take a pass at throwing more money at stocks.

But we' won't take a pass at holding our gold and precious metals positions. Now there's a market that makes a lot of sense. It's one that you don't hear much, if anything, about. And it's outperformed stocks over the last year. If we hadn't invested aggressively in this market, we'd be doing so now. 

Okay, so maybe gold rose higher and quicker than Mr. Market likes. So maybe there will be some correction to settle the PM market down. That's okay. It's natural. And it keeps the market strong. Think of it as resting up for the next push upward.

But what about that crisis and that crash. Is it possible the powers-that-be will be able to pump and pump again and again and prevent a "normalizing " of the stock market and a recession in the economy. Past posts have discussed this. Human history shows us that manipulations can't last forever. At some point, those who participate in markets wake up to what's really going on and they react based on that perception.

That's at least what history tells us.

Of course, no one really knows history anymore. And more than not knowing it, they think it doesn't matter. They prefer making up their own view of reality without reference to history. 

Does this mean that history will fail us? Does it mean that the stock market will simply continue to rise - ad infinitum. 

Does it mean that the economy - at least the economy as measured by official source - will continue to run and run and run?

Sorry. No answers here. You'll have to think about this on your own.