Has Reckoning Time Finally Arrived?

So, has reckoning time finally arrived? We've been hearing about recession, stock market correction/bear market/crash for a couple of years now. Nothing much happened. More than nothing, stocks hit record highs. All along we were told the economy was robust; there would be no recession...blah, blah, blah.

Much more accompanied all this. The famous Inverted Yield Curve held for months and months. It's been considered a reliable indicator of impending recession. But, again, nothing. So much of nothing that the call went out: the Inverted Yield Curve is dead! At the very least it lost its luster. Pay no attention to it anymore. 

Similar things for stocks. Without boring everyone, we've had various ratios and relatively fail-safe indicators that would indicate something was going wrong with the stock market. Wrong as in expect a serious correction and/or Bear Market. We could almost hear the growls coming from its cave as it awakened to prowl about Wall Street seeking the ruin of investors. The result? Need we note: nothing. Indeed the opposite, especially after the election of America's "savior." Stocks rejoiced for weeks. 

Now, though, we're getting rumblings, maybe more than rumblings.

Stocks have taken hits. And with that talk of Recession has ensued - even coming from the White House. 

What's up?

We can of course cogitate. We can even opine and add to what will likely be a growing pile of prognostication about where we're headed - at least regarding the financial markets and the economy. But why bother?!!! Aren't there better uses of our time?

In that spirit, here some thoughts, starting with Daylight Savings Time.

True to its calling as Controller of the Currency and Everything Else in Our Lives, the government has for a long time decided that setting the clocks forward was beneficial for us all. Something to do with farmers? Whatever. Lots of folks like it because it extends daylight, supposedly making us all happier citizens - or something like that. Of course, the first few days after the clock disruption typically find many of us feeling out of kilter. Waking up on the following Monday - with Monday traditionally presenting its own set of issues - found many of us in a sorry state. The clock said 5 AM, but our bodies said 4 AM. And so it goes for a few more days until Brother Ass (what St. Francis of Assisi humorously called his body) gets the message and bucks up.

Then there's been Lent - something we briefly referenced at the end of our last post. It's arrived in full force now after the starting gate days beginning with Ash Wednesday. Now we've got almost a full week under our belts. And if we've been faithful to some sort of Lenten discipline, Brother Ass has felt some pangs of deficit of food, while our spiritual muscles reflect the beginnings of a good work-out that consists of some combo of prayer, fasting, and almsgiving. These so-called "Three Pillars" have been with us since ancient times, some way since the Apostles themselves taught that 40-days before Easter were to be spent in some special observances to emphasize penance, a/k/a sorrow for our sins. That's over 2,000 years of Lents.

St. Patrick's Day and Spring: They're here - Monday St. Patty's, Thursday Spring.

Here in NYC, there'll be the traditional huge St. P's Day parade. We'll likely put on Irish music at some point in our home. It's something we all enjoy. Growing up with the Irish in America and listening to my brother's old Clancy Brothers and Tommy Makem album from the 1960s over and over again launched an initial good feeling for that sort of Irish music. Good Irish classmates and neighbors fueled those Irish fires. The residue of all that has led to increasing interest in all things Irish/Celtic. 

As for Spring, well, so many people make such a big deal about it, it's not worth adding to the pile. Seems folks can't stand too much winter in general, and this year (at least in these parts) we actually had cold winter days and nights (vs. the last few years). Plus now with DST (see above) you get more light to go with warming temps. Buds have started appearing on trees. (We're blessed with lots of 'em in our neighborhood.) And when April comes we'll start seeing the fullness of the Season expressed more generously.

Meanwhile, we expect the economic/financial kerfuffle to continue and blossom into something more dramatic as all this unfolds. After the initial shocks, some reversal is to be expected. It's part of the "nothing goes up/down in a straight line forever" reality. But who really knows. Prognostication doesn't need feeding. There'll be plenty of that from all quarters in the coming weeks.

Enjoy the good in all of this. And keep your heads down if the bad starts whizzing by your ears.