Times Square Terrorist: Is Something Big About To HIt Us?
The recent Times Square terrorist "incident" reminded me of a feeling I've had for a while now: Is something - something big - about to "hit" us? I'm actually not exactly sure what I mean. But the feeling's there and I wanted to share it with you.
It started last year as things calmed down after the crash and crisis of 2008. After a while, things calmed down to a point where it just started to feel too quiet. Did you feel it?
For months, news seemed neither good nor bad. The stock market was trading in a range, with low volume and low volatility. You didn't hear much about Iran or Korea and the whole nuclear weapons issue. The only thing that had a little sizzle was the Health Care legislation. But that's been out of the news for a while.
The fact is, this sort of quiet always disturbs me. Most times I just write it off as a quirk of my personality. But they always say you shouldn't ignore your feelings. Besides, I'm not the only one feeling this way.
An investment analyst whose research we read regularly at our firm recently passed on this tidbit from a professional acquaintance whom he described as a "well-connected foreign, international banker." This banker said that the banking business was too good almost too good to be true. Business was especially brisk from U.S. investors - so good, it's scary. He said the "smartest" people he knew were uneasy. They found it almost too good to be true and were taking action. They feel something's going to hit us - something bad.
What are they doing? He didn't say. But he did say that the smart ones know something's going to hit them; they're just not sure what. The analyst - who has an international clientele in addition to his contacts around the world - then said he's had conversations like this everywhere he goes over the last year or so.
So if you're feeling a bit odd too, a bit like something's amiss but you don't know what it is, you're in good company.
Look, I'm not trying to scare you. I'm the first one to say that you shouldn't make decisions based upon emotion. And I still believe that. That's exactly why I'm bringing this up now. That failed terrorist attempt triggered it. At this point I'm simply recognizing the feeling.
But as time goes by and the feeling persists - maybe even gets a bit stronger with time - I think you get to a point where you've got to do something. The question is: what do you do?
What I've started doing is a bunch of research - a little bit each day - and thinking about what could "go wrong"...then figuring out what I need to do to prepare myself and, of course, my family.
It's not hard to come up with things that could go wrong these days. Even though this recent terrorist attack failed, that doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the future. A simple but disturbing example of that concern would the threat of a terrorist attack using a nuclear or biological weapon. I don't lie awake at night worrying about this. But I can't just ignore the possibility of it happening either. What would I do if something like this really happened? I need to find a good answer.
Another example might be the possibility of yet another financial crisis - this time leading to even greater fear and paralysis than the last one - and who knows what else. The last few days just reinforced that feeling. The last time the government took the "bail out" approach. What might they do if another, even more severe crisis hit? Would they impose even more draconian measures such as currency controls or even martial law? Should I prepare myself to this possibility?
What do you think? Wouldn't you want to be prepared?
There's a really interesting book, "The Fourth Turning," that was published in the late 1990's. It talked about long-term trends going back to the 16th century or so. Back in 1997, the authors claimed we'd be heading into a 20-year trend - they called it a "fourth turning" - a volatile time that could get pretty bad for our country, and for the world. The trend would start in the first decade of the 21st century. That's where we are now.
It's worth a read, if you've got the time. I never forgot the book and recently re-read it. Maybe that's why this stuff is on my mind now.
Then again, being prepared is always a good idea, whether you think something's going to hit us today, tomorrow, or some other time in the future, right?
Like I said, I'm not bringing this up to scare anyone. I just thought maybe you've been feeling some of this too.
It started last year as things calmed down after the crash and crisis of 2008. After a while, things calmed down to a point where it just started to feel too quiet. Did you feel it?
For months, news seemed neither good nor bad. The stock market was trading in a range, with low volume and low volatility. You didn't hear much about Iran or Korea and the whole nuclear weapons issue. The only thing that had a little sizzle was the Health Care legislation. But that's been out of the news for a while.
The fact is, this sort of quiet always disturbs me. Most times I just write it off as a quirk of my personality. But they always say you shouldn't ignore your feelings. Besides, I'm not the only one feeling this way.
An investment analyst whose research we read regularly at our firm recently passed on this tidbit from a professional acquaintance whom he described as a "well-connected foreign, international banker." This banker said that the banking business was too good almost too good to be true. Business was especially brisk from U.S. investors - so good, it's scary. He said the "smartest" people he knew were uneasy. They found it almost too good to be true and were taking action. They feel something's going to hit us - something bad.
What are they doing? He didn't say. But he did say that the smart ones know something's going to hit them; they're just not sure what. The analyst - who has an international clientele in addition to his contacts around the world - then said he's had conversations like this everywhere he goes over the last year or so.
So if you're feeling a bit odd too, a bit like something's amiss but you don't know what it is, you're in good company.
Look, I'm not trying to scare you. I'm the first one to say that you shouldn't make decisions based upon emotion. And I still believe that. That's exactly why I'm bringing this up now. That failed terrorist attempt triggered it. At this point I'm simply recognizing the feeling.
But as time goes by and the feeling persists - maybe even gets a bit stronger with time - I think you get to a point where you've got to do something. The question is: what do you do?
What I've started doing is a bunch of research - a little bit each day - and thinking about what could "go wrong"...then figuring out what I need to do to prepare myself and, of course, my family.
It's not hard to come up with things that could go wrong these days. Even though this recent terrorist attack failed, that doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the future. A simple but disturbing example of that concern would the threat of a terrorist attack using a nuclear or biological weapon. I don't lie awake at night worrying about this. But I can't just ignore the possibility of it happening either. What would I do if something like this really happened? I need to find a good answer.
Another example might be the possibility of yet another financial crisis - this time leading to even greater fear and paralysis than the last one - and who knows what else. The last few days just reinforced that feeling. The last time the government took the "bail out" approach. What might they do if another, even more severe crisis hit? Would they impose even more draconian measures such as currency controls or even martial law? Should I prepare myself to this possibility?
What do you think? Wouldn't you want to be prepared?
There's a really interesting book, "The Fourth Turning," that was published in the late 1990's. It talked about long-term trends going back to the 16th century or so. Back in 1997, the authors claimed we'd be heading into a 20-year trend - they called it a "fourth turning" - a volatile time that could get pretty bad for our country, and for the world. The trend would start in the first decade of the 21st century. That's where we are now.
It's worth a read, if you've got the time. I never forgot the book and recently re-read it. Maybe that's why this stuff is on my mind now.
Then again, being prepared is always a good idea, whether you think something's going to hit us today, tomorrow, or some other time in the future, right?
Like I said, I'm not bringing this up to scare anyone. I just thought maybe you've been feeling some of this too.
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