The Stock Market Going Nowhere?
Where's the stock market headed now?
You'll always find the optimists - the happy Wall Street salesmen who always have good things to say about stocks. Sure enough, they're saying everything's peachy.
And you can find the grumps too - especially the ones calling for a "crash" this September. In fact, I wrote about that "Hindenburg Omen" that got a lot of press before Labor Day. (You can read my comments by clicking here.)
So now we've passed Labor Day and we're into September. September and October have traditionally been pretty bad months for stocks. So what's up?
Well, not much. In fact, it's just sort of bouncing around. It hit lows in July (Dow 9,686) then highs in August (Dow 10,698). Now it's somewhere in between. And that's all it's telling us so far.
Now, that doesn't mean it doesn't have a kind of "secret" plan it's waiting to spring on us all. It's just that it's keep the plan, well, secret.
It's latest head-fake was a nice, clean "head and shoulders" top formation it traced through July and August. And right toward the end of August, it broke support on the down side.
So if you live by charts alone, your knee-jerk reaction might have been: bail out.
But in this business, you really can't afford knee-jerk reactions or a one-dimensional view of what's happening. And sure enough, instead of continuing down, it turned right back up again.
So is there anything out there to give us some idea what that old stock market's really saying right now?
Well, one thing I think it's saying is that there are just a lot indecisive folks out there buying and selling on news. If you get a good story, some good economic numbers, they buy. If you get bad stuff, they sell.
The problem with that sort of action is it's just people treading water, really having no particular conviction. In fact, I think that some skilled traders are making some money now - the ones with experience and great instincts.
For the rest of us, trading this sort of market can be downright dangerous. Chances are you'll buy when you should sell and sell when you should buy. You'll be the ones the traders suck in and play with. They make money; you lose money.
Nah, I've got no plans to let the traders play around with me. I know my limits. And trading in these sorts of indecisive, "range-bound" markets isn't one of my better skills.
So I'm kind of off on the side watching the show - at least from time to time.
On the other hand, I have bought a bunch of new positions. Why? Well, I've been following some fundamental trends and lined up a bunch of stocks to buy for the right price. Stuff that I figure should hold up - or at least spring back pretty quickly - even if the market tanks this fall.
But I'm not betting the ranch - not even with my good ideas. I figure I've been doing a pretty good job holding on to my money for a few years now, even making some in the teeth of the worst stock market action most of us have ever seen. So why mess things up now?
It's all about discipline, folks. If you can't stay disciplined, if you find yourself chomping at the bit to buy because you think you're going to make a killing during these range-bound markets, or, on the other hand, fearful that the world's going to fall apart and you'll lose all your money - or worse, looking to "do something" just for the sake of doing something - well, here's some advice:
Put your feet up and relax. Watch the show with me. It may get pretty interesting within the next few weeks.
You'll always find the optimists - the happy Wall Street salesmen who always have good things to say about stocks. Sure enough, they're saying everything's peachy.
And you can find the grumps too - especially the ones calling for a "crash" this September. In fact, I wrote about that "Hindenburg Omen" that got a lot of press before Labor Day. (You can read my comments by clicking here.)
So now we've passed Labor Day and we're into September. September and October have traditionally been pretty bad months for stocks. So what's up?
Well, not much. In fact, it's just sort of bouncing around. It hit lows in July (Dow 9,686) then highs in August (Dow 10,698). Now it's somewhere in between. And that's all it's telling us so far.
Now, that doesn't mean it doesn't have a kind of "secret" plan it's waiting to spring on us all. It's just that it's keep the plan, well, secret.
It's latest head-fake was a nice, clean "head and shoulders" top formation it traced through July and August. And right toward the end of August, it broke support on the down side.
So if you live by charts alone, your knee-jerk reaction might have been: bail out.
But in this business, you really can't afford knee-jerk reactions or a one-dimensional view of what's happening. And sure enough, instead of continuing down, it turned right back up again.
So is there anything out there to give us some idea what that old stock market's really saying right now?
Well, one thing I think it's saying is that there are just a lot indecisive folks out there buying and selling on news. If you get a good story, some good economic numbers, they buy. If you get bad stuff, they sell.
The problem with that sort of action is it's just people treading water, really having no particular conviction. In fact, I think that some skilled traders are making some money now - the ones with experience and great instincts.
For the rest of us, trading this sort of market can be downright dangerous. Chances are you'll buy when you should sell and sell when you should buy. You'll be the ones the traders suck in and play with. They make money; you lose money.
Nah, I've got no plans to let the traders play around with me. I know my limits. And trading in these sorts of indecisive, "range-bound" markets isn't one of my better skills.
So I'm kind of off on the side watching the show - at least from time to time.
On the other hand, I have bought a bunch of new positions. Why? Well, I've been following some fundamental trends and lined up a bunch of stocks to buy for the right price. Stuff that I figure should hold up - or at least spring back pretty quickly - even if the market tanks this fall.
But I'm not betting the ranch - not even with my good ideas. I figure I've been doing a pretty good job holding on to my money for a few years now, even making some in the teeth of the worst stock market action most of us have ever seen. So why mess things up now?
It's all about discipline, folks. If you can't stay disciplined, if you find yourself chomping at the bit to buy because you think you're going to make a killing during these range-bound markets, or, on the other hand, fearful that the world's going to fall apart and you'll lose all your money - or worse, looking to "do something" just for the sake of doing something - well, here's some advice:
Put your feet up and relax. Watch the show with me. It may get pretty interesting within the next few weeks.
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