Housing Falls Even Harder Than I Thought
I keep hearing that it's good time to buy a house. I suppose you can find a really good deal if you look hard enough, but I'm not sure about that
I also hear - from some quarters - that housing's hit bottom. I'm not sure about that either.
The first place to look is your own neighborhood. It's not a perfect way to check on housing, but, let's face it, if you're in the market for a house, or want to sell a house, you probably want to check your own neighborhood first. Who cares what the "national" statistics say?
In my neighborhood, "For Sale" signs have increased. Of all the ones I've noticed, none have sold. None. Some have been there for over a year.
You can also check sites like Zillow.com. They'll tell you what's sold recently where you live. I checked and a few houses have sold over the last year - for pretty good prices. But there have been no sales in the last few months.
Go ahead. Check the local action wherever you are. This way you'll know what's going on around you.
Meanwhile, those national statistics can give us some idea about how housing is going over all. If housing's not on it's way up, or at least hitting a bottom, the economy's not going to get much better. So along those lines, I found some interesting stats from the "Bespoke Investment Group." Here's the scoop:
1) New home sales are at their lowest level in 40 years.
...and a really interesting stat...
2) Sales "per capita" are one home sale for every 1,246 Americans.
The second stat really hits home (no pun intended). The average per capita rate over the last 40 years is 370. Worse, the highest it's been is between 600 - 700, back in the days of the 1980 and 1982 recessions - the worst recessions since the Great Depression before our recent Great Recession.
These are pretty awful numbers. For one thing, I think housing is a lot worse than most people think. And while I wouldn't bet on this, I do think it's possible that housing will shock people as to how much worse it may get, which means it really hasn't bottomed at all. I could be wrong, but I'm basing this on the fact that when I've seen houses sell, they're really not selling at such great prices that I'd consider them bargains. What does sell still seems to be selling at fairly premium prices.
Therefore, based on my personal experience and these numbers, I don't think housing has improved much. And on top of the number from Bespoke, the foreclosure process by banks has been so slow - a process that could begin to speed up. If it does (and it should soon) then that will dump an even greater number of homes for sale on the market at a fairly high rate.
So I won't be looking for any bargains around here. And if you're looking, you'll probably want to be sure that you're getting a real, serious bargain.
You can find a couple of charts illustrating the Bespoke numbers here.
I also hear - from some quarters - that housing's hit bottom. I'm not sure about that either.
The first place to look is your own neighborhood. It's not a perfect way to check on housing, but, let's face it, if you're in the market for a house, or want to sell a house, you probably want to check your own neighborhood first. Who cares what the "national" statistics say?
In my neighborhood, "For Sale" signs have increased. Of all the ones I've noticed, none have sold. None. Some have been there for over a year.
You can also check sites like Zillow.com. They'll tell you what's sold recently where you live. I checked and a few houses have sold over the last year - for pretty good prices. But there have been no sales in the last few months.
Go ahead. Check the local action wherever you are. This way you'll know what's going on around you.
Meanwhile, those national statistics can give us some idea about how housing is going over all. If housing's not on it's way up, or at least hitting a bottom, the economy's not going to get much better. So along those lines, I found some interesting stats from the "Bespoke Investment Group." Here's the scoop:
1) New home sales are at their lowest level in 40 years.
...and a really interesting stat...
2) Sales "per capita" are one home sale for every 1,246 Americans.
The second stat really hits home (no pun intended). The average per capita rate over the last 40 years is 370. Worse, the highest it's been is between 600 - 700, back in the days of the 1980 and 1982 recessions - the worst recessions since the Great Depression before our recent Great Recession.
These are pretty awful numbers. For one thing, I think housing is a lot worse than most people think. And while I wouldn't bet on this, I do think it's possible that housing will shock people as to how much worse it may get, which means it really hasn't bottomed at all. I could be wrong, but I'm basing this on the fact that when I've seen houses sell, they're really not selling at such great prices that I'd consider them bargains. What does sell still seems to be selling at fairly premium prices.
Therefore, based on my personal experience and these numbers, I don't think housing has improved much. And on top of the number from Bespoke, the foreclosure process by banks has been so slow - a process that could begin to speed up. If it does (and it should soon) then that will dump an even greater number of homes for sale on the market at a fairly high rate.
So I won't be looking for any bargains around here. And if you're looking, you'll probably want to be sure that you're getting a real, serious bargain.
You can find a couple of charts illustrating the Bespoke numbers here.
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