The Market's Flopping But Seems to be Pulling Itself Up - Again
It's been over a week and my puzzled feeling remains. What's going on "out there"? Things just feel confused.
Stocks looked like the might be resuming their primary bear market action in August and September, but no. Now they're tortuously working their way up. But really up? While the Dow never broke below 10,000, it's still far below it's May 2011 recent high of 12,807 - never mind the October 9, 2007 bull market high of 14,163.80. (Was it really that high? Has it really been over 4 years since then?)
It won't break down...but it doesn't look strong enough to pull itself up much more.
Everyone keeps saying bonds "should" be sinking and interest rates should be going up. "They've" been saying this for what seems like years. (It's at least 3 years that some really smart folks have been making this case - and it sure does make sense.) But after the 30-year treasury interest rates pushed up to the important 4.8% level, they turned right around, even sinking below 3% again briefly. Now they're hanging around 3.10%.
Oil slipped below 100, headed through the 70's, then turned around and has been hanging bouncing around in the 80's for weeks. Even Ghaddafi's death and the turmoil in Libya only got a yawn. Is oil "tired"?
Gold, after plummeting from its lofty 1,900's, now plays in the 1,525 - 1,925 area, but mostly sticks to the 1600's lately.
Economists keep saying we're not going to slip back into recession - but not all of them. The arguments why we're going to muddle along without another recession seem somewhat convincing - kind of. (Although the strongest arguments come from the usual suspects: the economists for Wall Street firms.)
It's like no one can make up their minds about anything.
So I figured I'd spend some quality time reading and studying what my favorite, most trusted, wisest sources say. But after grinding my brain and tiring my eyes out for about a week, I'm still puzzled and still wondering what's going on. Even the venerable Richard Russell has been saying he's never seen market like this - and he's been publishing his Dow Theory Letters since 1958!
What's guy to do? Wait and see? Yeah, maybe that's best. Just slow down, keep studying...think...get back to basics...
Stocks looked like the might be resuming their primary bear market action in August and September, but no. Now they're tortuously working their way up. But really up? While the Dow never broke below 10,000, it's still far below it's May 2011 recent high of 12,807 - never mind the October 9, 2007 bull market high of 14,163.80. (Was it really that high? Has it really been over 4 years since then?)
It won't break down...but it doesn't look strong enough to pull itself up much more.
Everyone keeps saying bonds "should" be sinking and interest rates should be going up. "They've" been saying this for what seems like years. (It's at least 3 years that some really smart folks have been making this case - and it sure does make sense.) But after the 30-year treasury interest rates pushed up to the important 4.8% level, they turned right around, even sinking below 3% again briefly. Now they're hanging around 3.10%.
Oil slipped below 100, headed through the 70's, then turned around and has been hanging bouncing around in the 80's for weeks. Even Ghaddafi's death and the turmoil in Libya only got a yawn. Is oil "tired"?
Gold, after plummeting from its lofty 1,900's, now plays in the 1,525 - 1,925 area, but mostly sticks to the 1600's lately.
Economists keep saying we're not going to slip back into recession - but not all of them. The arguments why we're going to muddle along without another recession seem somewhat convincing - kind of. (Although the strongest arguments come from the usual suspects: the economists for Wall Street firms.)
It's like no one can make up their minds about anything.
So I figured I'd spend some quality time reading and studying what my favorite, most trusted, wisest sources say. But after grinding my brain and tiring my eyes out for about a week, I'm still puzzled and still wondering what's going on. Even the venerable Richard Russell has been saying he's never seen market like this - and he's been publishing his Dow Theory Letters since 1958!
What's guy to do? Wait and see? Yeah, maybe that's best. Just slow down, keep studying...think...get back to basics...
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