What We Might Have Learned Last Week
Last week was "Easter Week," a special time of religious observation, celebration, and - to some extent - easing off the work load. At least it would be that in an ordered society. Since we don't have such a society, for the most part, I'm not sure how many of us did observe Easter Week as we should.
With that in mind, the markets more or less seemed to observe things as they should during Easter Week: not much happened. But let's see what we might have learned had we paid some attention, despite our self-imposed lighter work load.
While much was written about how stocks have been slipping lately, that market remains firmly ensconced in it's bullish primary trend. Nothing so far has threatened that trend.
As for bonds, they continued to surprise, even shock, all those who had beaten the drum of rising interest rates as far as the eye can see. From the financial media to the professional publications, endless articles continue to appear about "what to do when interest rates rise." The only question now should be whether this falling of interest rates marks a correction in a primary trend of higher rates, or whether the rise in rates that began with the Trump election represents a correction in a continuing trend of lower interest rates. Of course, there's a third possibility when one expands one's vision of where interest rates have been over, let's say, the last five years. Looking at this chart, it doesn't seem that any real rising trend exists. Nor does it seems a continuing lowering trend dominates. You decide.
The only asset that's presented a bit of intrigue would be gold. It broke through resistance at 1275 and has remained firmly above that. Depending on our sources, we could conclude that it's either indicated a willingness to continue rising, or has presented yet another "head fake." However, the evidence does seem to be building that the last few head fakes can be consigned to the trash bin of history. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on a continuation of the great bull market in gold that began in 2000-2001, continued until 2011, paused for a long corrective interlude, only to regain the strength to resume its bullish primary trend. But I'm not a betting man.
Unless I missed something (which is entirely possible), not much else of note happened last week. In any event, with Easter Week now over, it's back to full-time in the salt mines. Will markets give us meaty clues this week that help us to discern more definitively some change in trend? We'll have to wait and see.
With that in mind, the markets more or less seemed to observe things as they should during Easter Week: not much happened. But let's see what we might have learned had we paid some attention, despite our self-imposed lighter work load.
While much was written about how stocks have been slipping lately, that market remains firmly ensconced in it's bullish primary trend. Nothing so far has threatened that trend.
As for bonds, they continued to surprise, even shock, all those who had beaten the drum of rising interest rates as far as the eye can see. From the financial media to the professional publications, endless articles continue to appear about "what to do when interest rates rise." The only question now should be whether this falling of interest rates marks a correction in a primary trend of higher rates, or whether the rise in rates that began with the Trump election represents a correction in a continuing trend of lower interest rates. Of course, there's a third possibility when one expands one's vision of where interest rates have been over, let's say, the last five years. Looking at this chart, it doesn't seem that any real rising trend exists. Nor does it seems a continuing lowering trend dominates. You decide.
The only asset that's presented a bit of intrigue would be gold. It broke through resistance at 1275 and has remained firmly above that. Depending on our sources, we could conclude that it's either indicated a willingness to continue rising, or has presented yet another "head fake." However, the evidence does seem to be building that the last few head fakes can be consigned to the trash bin of history. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on a continuation of the great bull market in gold that began in 2000-2001, continued until 2011, paused for a long corrective interlude, only to regain the strength to resume its bullish primary trend. But I'm not a betting man.
Unless I missed something (which is entirely possible), not much else of note happened last week. In any event, with Easter Week now over, it's back to full-time in the salt mines. Will markets give us meaty clues this week that help us to discern more definitively some change in trend? We'll have to wait and see.
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