First Week of 2018: Business as Ususal - With a Twist
So far the New Year continues where the old left off: Stocks pushing to new record highs; bonds bouncing within a fairly tight range.
But as the main asset classes continue on trend, let's not neglect to put in a good word for gold. With hardly a soul to notice it, gold finished 2017 up, the second year it's been up in a row. And it managed this with hardly a whisper from the financial media. Now if I were a betting man, I might consider this sort of action somewhat indicative of a bullish trend - one of the "stealth" variety.
Consider this: After a record-shattering bull market of 10 years without a stumble, gold began a down trend in 2011. Some called it a bear market, some a correction in an ongoing bull market. The latter's argument grew weak as the down trend continued for about five years - until 2016, when gold finished the year up for the first time since 2011. But now? Well, let's compare the last two years of Gold to SPY, the ETF for the S&P for a bit of perspective.
SPY was up around 9.6% in 2016, around 20% this year. Gold? Up 8.5% in 2016; up 13.2% this year. It's likely SPY didn't surprise you. How about Gold? For many if not most of us, perhaps a raised eyebrow?
And that's where the "stealth" comes in. If no one's noticing an item rising, it's doing so under the radar. And that's typically a sign of a bull quietly gaining strength.
What about 2018? Well, we've given up on predictions. They're usually either wrong or useless. That's certainly been true on this end, and it's been consistently true in reading the predictions of others. Besides, for those of you using "static" asset allocations (where you keep your allocation of stocks, bonds, other at fixed percentage no matter which way the markets move), why should predictions matter to you? And for those of you using a "dynamic" approach (changing percentages based on various factors), predictions really won't impact what you do. Better to read a book, listen to some good music, or get in some extra exercise to keep yourself in shape if you've got time on your hands. With that in mind, here's something for fans of "Jesse Stone." If you've enjoyed that series, you'll likely remember the scenes when Jesse's at home, pours a Scotch, drops the needle of his record player, and out comes this theme from a piano piece by Brahms. It's a soothing beautiful melody, although we never hear the whole piece. So this one's for us Jesse Stone fans, as well as those of us in the brutally cold Northeast, surrounded by all that snow that just fell. If it's early, grab a cup of coffee; if later, maybe an adult beverage, relax, and take a listen to this lovely interpretation of the Brahms Intermezzo, Op. 118, No. 2 in A major by the great Arthur Rubinstein.
But as the main asset classes continue on trend, let's not neglect to put in a good word for gold. With hardly a soul to notice it, gold finished 2017 up, the second year it's been up in a row. And it managed this with hardly a whisper from the financial media. Now if I were a betting man, I might consider this sort of action somewhat indicative of a bullish trend - one of the "stealth" variety.
Consider this: After a record-shattering bull market of 10 years without a stumble, gold began a down trend in 2011. Some called it a bear market, some a correction in an ongoing bull market. The latter's argument grew weak as the down trend continued for about five years - until 2016, when gold finished the year up for the first time since 2011. But now? Well, let's compare the last two years of Gold to SPY, the ETF for the S&P for a bit of perspective.
SPY was up around 9.6% in 2016, around 20% this year. Gold? Up 8.5% in 2016; up 13.2% this year. It's likely SPY didn't surprise you. How about Gold? For many if not most of us, perhaps a raised eyebrow?
And that's where the "stealth" comes in. If no one's noticing an item rising, it's doing so under the radar. And that's typically a sign of a bull quietly gaining strength.
What about 2018? Well, we've given up on predictions. They're usually either wrong or useless. That's certainly been true on this end, and it's been consistently true in reading the predictions of others. Besides, for those of you using "static" asset allocations (where you keep your allocation of stocks, bonds, other at fixed percentage no matter which way the markets move), why should predictions matter to you? And for those of you using a "dynamic" approach (changing percentages based on various factors), predictions really won't impact what you do. Better to read a book, listen to some good music, or get in some extra exercise to keep yourself in shape if you've got time on your hands. With that in mind, here's something for fans of "Jesse Stone." If you've enjoyed that series, you'll likely remember the scenes when Jesse's at home, pours a Scotch, drops the needle of his record player, and out comes this theme from a piano piece by Brahms. It's a soothing beautiful melody, although we never hear the whole piece. So this one's for us Jesse Stone fans, as well as those of us in the brutally cold Northeast, surrounded by all that snow that just fell. If it's early, grab a cup of coffee; if later, maybe an adult beverage, relax, and take a listen to this lovely interpretation of the Brahms Intermezzo, Op. 118, No. 2 in A major by the great Arthur Rubinstein.
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