Global Markets: What "Everyone's" Saying
Continuing some summer doldrum stuff, let's consdier what everyone's saying about global markets.
It wasn't that long ago that the financial media was pushing global growth. Everywhere you looked (they claimed) economies were strong and getting stronger. Then something changed. For weeks now, we've been hearing that global markets - except for the U.S. - were showing signs of weakening. So we thought we'd post a few charts that could actually be interpreted to show this new arrangement.
(I don't think you need any particular expertise in technical analysis to be able to interpret these.)
First the U.S., represented by the ETF SPY (an S&P index fund):
Compare to EFA which represents large and mid-cap companies in developed economies excluding the U.S. and Canada:
Or to FXI (Chinese companies):
Finally to EUM - emerging markets:
See what I mean about not needing any techinal expertise here?
Does this mean that on a long-term basis the economies of the world are definitively slowing and/or that the U.S. is the exception? It might, but the we need more time to declare this to be a significant long-term trend.
If that trend proves to be valid, another question pops up: Can the U.S. continue to be the exception, or will it be the last domino to fall?
So there it is - something else to chew on during these relatively uneventful summer doldrum days.
Now let's see what happens if the VIX closes below its lower Bollinger Band and subsequently closes above. (See our last post.) That may spice things up a bit for a few days.
Will it change the pattern we see above? That would take some doing.
It wasn't that long ago that the financial media was pushing global growth. Everywhere you looked (they claimed) economies were strong and getting stronger. Then something changed. For weeks now, we've been hearing that global markets - except for the U.S. - were showing signs of weakening. So we thought we'd post a few charts that could actually be interpreted to show this new arrangement.
(I don't think you need any particular expertise in technical analysis to be able to interpret these.)
First the U.S., represented by the ETF SPY (an S&P index fund):
Compare to EFA which represents large and mid-cap companies in developed economies excluding the U.S. and Canada:
Or to FXI (Chinese companies):
Finally to EUM - emerging markets:
See what I mean about not needing any techinal expertise here?
Does this mean that on a long-term basis the economies of the world are definitively slowing and/or that the U.S. is the exception? It might, but the we need more time to declare this to be a significant long-term trend.
If that trend proves to be valid, another question pops up: Can the U.S. continue to be the exception, or will it be the last domino to fall?
So there it is - something else to chew on during these relatively uneventful summer doldrum days.
Now let's see what happens if the VIX closes below its lower Bollinger Band and subsequently closes above. (See our last post.) That may spice things up a bit for a few days.
Will it change the pattern we see above? That would take some doing.
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