Something of Note in the Stock Market Last Week
Something of note occurred in the stock market last week: the Dow Industrial Index hit a new high. The significance of this goes beyond just being a new high. This "confirmed" the high that the Dow Transportation Index hit earlier. For aficionados of Dow Theory, this confirmation put to bed the possibility of a non-confirmation. That condition existed when the Transports made a new high, but the Industrials did not. Had this condition persisted, we would have a potential bear market signal. Now that's all put to bed.
Of course, you wouldn't typically hear about this in the financial media. Most of the reporting circled (endlessly) around talk about trade wars. One day there's an intensifying trade war proposed as the explanation for stocks declining. Of course, when there's more talk about more trade war activity and the stock market doesn't decline, then there will be a switch to something like the fact that the U.S. stock market and economy has been strong compared to the rest of the world. Or maybe it could be that unemployment came in the lowest its been in - I don't know - a million years.
If you can make any sense out of all this chatter, you likely watch or listen to financial media too much. Really, most of it makes no sense. It only seems that way because you're glued to it and after a while the droning sounds right, or maybe you're thinking in tandem with the talking heads who spit this stuff out. If so, it's time to take a break or - even better - avoid this stuff altogether.
As for the Dow Theory confirmation, while it's happened, it doesn't mean you load up on stocks. Remember, it confirms the existing trend. So it's saying, in effect, that the bull market in stocks marches on. Ho-hum.
For something possibly more spicy, there's the gold market. As what is likely the most manipulated of all markets (a subject for another time), gold has been frustrating gold bugs now since it peaked in 2011 after a historic bull market run. Each time it hints that it's going to resume that bull run, it turns right around (or is violently manipulated down, depending on your point of view). So it's with some reluctance that we point out its recent sings of strength. Again, such strength doesn't make me want to load up my wagon with gold and gold mining stocks (which have also shown some sparks lately). It's still not clear whether this uptick signals a possibly short-to-intermediate term move up (as has been the case since the secondary bear market trend reversed in 2015) or whether this might be "the big one" - the second leg of a bull market in gold that began in 2001.
To tie this all together, here's something I stumbled on that captures - well, you decide if it captures anything for you. The "idiots" might include much of the financial media, or course. But, let's face it, we've all got a gaggle of these that either surround us or manage to horn their way into what began as a perfectly splendid day. Isn't that true?
Of course, you wouldn't typically hear about this in the financial media. Most of the reporting circled (endlessly) around talk about trade wars. One day there's an intensifying trade war proposed as the explanation for stocks declining. Of course, when there's more talk about more trade war activity and the stock market doesn't decline, then there will be a switch to something like the fact that the U.S. stock market and economy has been strong compared to the rest of the world. Or maybe it could be that unemployment came in the lowest its been in - I don't know - a million years.
If you can make any sense out of all this chatter, you likely watch or listen to financial media too much. Really, most of it makes no sense. It only seems that way because you're glued to it and after a while the droning sounds right, or maybe you're thinking in tandem with the talking heads who spit this stuff out. If so, it's time to take a break or - even better - avoid this stuff altogether.
As for the Dow Theory confirmation, while it's happened, it doesn't mean you load up on stocks. Remember, it confirms the existing trend. So it's saying, in effect, that the bull market in stocks marches on. Ho-hum.
For something possibly more spicy, there's the gold market. As what is likely the most manipulated of all markets (a subject for another time), gold has been frustrating gold bugs now since it peaked in 2011 after a historic bull market run. Each time it hints that it's going to resume that bull run, it turns right around (or is violently manipulated down, depending on your point of view). So it's with some reluctance that we point out its recent sings of strength. Again, such strength doesn't make me want to load up my wagon with gold and gold mining stocks (which have also shown some sparks lately). It's still not clear whether this uptick signals a possibly short-to-intermediate term move up (as has been the case since the secondary bear market trend reversed in 2015) or whether this might be "the big one" - the second leg of a bull market in gold that began in 2001.
To tie this all together, here's something I stumbled on that captures - well, you decide if it captures anything for you. The "idiots" might include much of the financial media, or course. But, let's face it, we've all got a gaggle of these that either surround us or manage to horn their way into what began as a perfectly splendid day. Isn't that true?
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