Returning from Vacation: Here's What I Found
Here's what I found after returning from vacation: not much of anything - with one possible exception.
Taking time off from your business always presents challenges. Even if its not a small business like mine, if you're the one in charge your responsibilities - sadly - don't get time off. They remain even as you try to get away for a spell. But with good systems in place, along with some advantages provided by technology, it's a bit easier than it once was.
Once upon a time getting away created lots of anxiety. For example, vacation time was accompanied by lots of anxiety, both in the days leading up to it as well as the actual time away from the office. Part of the reason was that we didn't have the systems in place we now do to monitor what was going on in markets and with individual client portfolios. Expanding those systems and incorporating good technology has helped immensely.
So this year, the usual anxiety before leaving was much reduced. Sure, there was some. But it was abridged and mostly had to do with double and triple-checking everything that needed to be in place. There was none - or very little - of "what do we do if this or that happens." What a relief!
The technology that's helped isn't all that complicated. It's mostly comprised of good internet access and solid indicators that help us understand what's going on - along with anticipating likely scenarios that might pop up near-term. So that meant that when the U.S. government almost bombed Iran, we could quickly scan some of those indicators and get a sense of how serious the situation might be. As a result, before even reading the reports that the media provided, we perceived it wasn't that serious.
Then there was the Fed meeting last week. That one wasn't so hard to deal with. We were pretty much happy with the diversification and balance in our portfolios, given what the Fed might do. When the news broke on Wednesday, markets were muted. They reacted more strongly the next day. Our portfolios were happy with the results.
This time around, we had not anticipation of making any changes in our portfolios no matter the news. In a previous circumstance (over the course of the last year) we had arranged for trades to be set to go if certain indicators triggered the need for action. When they did, it took about five minutes to do what we had to do. And had the internet failed us, we had phone back-up that would have allowed us to execute verbally.
Not that you need or want to know all that. But there it is. The point being, you need to always be organized and alert. If you do that as a matter of course, there's little that can throw you for a loop.
Now, that doesn't say you'll always make the best decision at the perfect time. No one can do that. What it does say is that you'll make your best decision at a reasonable time.
This time around, even though no action was called for, there was one price movement that stood out as more significant: gold. We could have said "stocks," but gold stood out more. The reason we could have said stocks was, of course, various averages hitting new highs. The thing to keep in mind there, though, is: 1) Not all averages did - although they might in coming days/weeks; 2) Sometimes a new high indicates a new leg up in a bull market; but it's got to "stick" for at least a few days to know it's not a head fake that's setting you up for a leg down. So we'll have to wait a while on stocks.
As for gold, it had a pretty hefty rise that was decidedly not in reaction to the Iran situation. Gold can be bumped up in times of political crisis. Threat of war is one of the best examples. But when the threat of war popped up, gold's prcie didn't simultaneously pop. That told us that the threat was not as bad as it sounded. But gold's price did, nevertheless, jump last week, apart from the Iran situation. And based on our studies, that told us we might be in for a new leg up in gold's recovery from the bull market correction that begain in 2011. (Some have called it a bear market, but lets not split hairs here.)
As for stocks and bonds, well, they've been both doing well. Last week neither indicated any reason to think that did or will change - at least in the near-term.
Whew! That was a mouthful for first day back from vacation.
Maybe I need another vacation?
Taking time off from your business always presents challenges. Even if its not a small business like mine, if you're the one in charge your responsibilities - sadly - don't get time off. They remain even as you try to get away for a spell. But with good systems in place, along with some advantages provided by technology, it's a bit easier than it once was.
Once upon a time getting away created lots of anxiety. For example, vacation time was accompanied by lots of anxiety, both in the days leading up to it as well as the actual time away from the office. Part of the reason was that we didn't have the systems in place we now do to monitor what was going on in markets and with individual client portfolios. Expanding those systems and incorporating good technology has helped immensely.
So this year, the usual anxiety before leaving was much reduced. Sure, there was some. But it was abridged and mostly had to do with double and triple-checking everything that needed to be in place. There was none - or very little - of "what do we do if this or that happens." What a relief!
The technology that's helped isn't all that complicated. It's mostly comprised of good internet access and solid indicators that help us understand what's going on - along with anticipating likely scenarios that might pop up near-term. So that meant that when the U.S. government almost bombed Iran, we could quickly scan some of those indicators and get a sense of how serious the situation might be. As a result, before even reading the reports that the media provided, we perceived it wasn't that serious.
Then there was the Fed meeting last week. That one wasn't so hard to deal with. We were pretty much happy with the diversification and balance in our portfolios, given what the Fed might do. When the news broke on Wednesday, markets were muted. They reacted more strongly the next day. Our portfolios were happy with the results.
This time around, we had not anticipation of making any changes in our portfolios no matter the news. In a previous circumstance (over the course of the last year) we had arranged for trades to be set to go if certain indicators triggered the need for action. When they did, it took about five minutes to do what we had to do. And had the internet failed us, we had phone back-up that would have allowed us to execute verbally.
Not that you need or want to know all that. But there it is. The point being, you need to always be organized and alert. If you do that as a matter of course, there's little that can throw you for a loop.
Now, that doesn't say you'll always make the best decision at the perfect time. No one can do that. What it does say is that you'll make your best decision at a reasonable time.
This time around, even though no action was called for, there was one price movement that stood out as more significant: gold. We could have said "stocks," but gold stood out more. The reason we could have said stocks was, of course, various averages hitting new highs. The thing to keep in mind there, though, is: 1) Not all averages did - although they might in coming days/weeks; 2) Sometimes a new high indicates a new leg up in a bull market; but it's got to "stick" for at least a few days to know it's not a head fake that's setting you up for a leg down. So we'll have to wait a while on stocks.
As for gold, it had a pretty hefty rise that was decidedly not in reaction to the Iran situation. Gold can be bumped up in times of political crisis. Threat of war is one of the best examples. But when the threat of war popped up, gold's prcie didn't simultaneously pop. That told us that the threat was not as bad as it sounded. But gold's price did, nevertheless, jump last week, apart from the Iran situation. And based on our studies, that told us we might be in for a new leg up in gold's recovery from the bull market correction that begain in 2011. (Some have called it a bear market, but lets not split hairs here.)
As for stocks and bonds, well, they've been both doing well. Last week neither indicated any reason to think that did or will change - at least in the near-term.
Whew! That was a mouthful for first day back from vacation.
Maybe I need another vacation?
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