Summer Settles In
After July 4th, summer settles in. Here in the Northeast, we know hot days - many with humidity - will be common. With that, shorter work days make sense.
For years I didn't take this shorter work days thing seriously. So I just kept slogging away, even when days were muggy and hot. Heck, the daylight's at its peak, so why shouldn't I keep at it?
None of this makes any sense, of course. Whether days are long or short, how does that change your work hours? It's not like we don't have electricty when it's dark and air conditioning when it's hot. But one thing does make sense: client attention spans. They shorten as the days grow long. Why? A good guess is they've got more summery things they'd rather do than spend time chatting about their planning and investments. Hey, those two - planning and investments - aren't the most exciting topics for most people.
Not that they're not important, of course. It's just that spending a lot of time on them isn't much fun for the average bear. Just because I can talk about this stuff endlessly doesn't mean they can listen. So I try to keep it short and sweet. And short and sweet's even more important when it's light and hot in the summer.
So maybe I'll ease up a bit on this end because clients ease up on their end. That's makes sense.
Yet even with the easing up, the need to stay on top of markets doesn't ease up. In the past, that led to almost-obsessive checking of computer screens, reading the latest opinions about the state of the markets, and where things "should" go.
That's changed. First of all, over time, we've developed really efficient checklists to stay on top of things. No need to obssess. Just check things off. And we've got some really good indicators that give us a pretty good view of the state of the markets.
About those indicators, here's a quick and dirty summing up of what they're saying:
Stocks haven't given up the ghost of this longest-running bull market - yet. And the "Melt-Up" that some have called for remains a distinct possibility in the coming months.
Bonds have surprised most of us who thought that their historic bull market must surely be drawing to a close. What's really been surprising has been the possibility that what seemed like the low point of yields (and, conversely, high point of bond prices) in July 2016 may not prove to be the low point. It's possible, given the relentless downward trend in yields in recent months, that we could revisit those lows. Few believed that possible. But there it is.
Gold may be the most intriguing asset right now. It's recent action has been signalling a resumption of the historic bull market that began in 2000-2001, that went into correction in 2011. Given that it's 2019, that's a long correction. But things don't always (or hardly ever) follow a script when it comes to markets.
With that, one puzzlment has been silver. Typically in a strong gold bull market, silver catches fire and winds up out-performing gold. That hasn't happened. The ratio of gold to silver has been hovering around 92 to 1. That's high - almost at the 100-1 levels of the 1970s before silver took off. We'll keep our eye on silver by checking that ratio. If and when it decidedly narrows, that could signal a strengthening gold bull, with a volatile silver bull to follow.
Meanwhile, none of this has caused us to make any changes to our porfolios.
So enjoy the summer. Unless you're in the business of managing other people's money, you probably won't be checking in with markets as often as do we.
For years I didn't take this shorter work days thing seriously. So I just kept slogging away, even when days were muggy and hot. Heck, the daylight's at its peak, so why shouldn't I keep at it?
None of this makes any sense, of course. Whether days are long or short, how does that change your work hours? It's not like we don't have electricty when it's dark and air conditioning when it's hot. But one thing does make sense: client attention spans. They shorten as the days grow long. Why? A good guess is they've got more summery things they'd rather do than spend time chatting about their planning and investments. Hey, those two - planning and investments - aren't the most exciting topics for most people.
Not that they're not important, of course. It's just that spending a lot of time on them isn't much fun for the average bear. Just because I can talk about this stuff endlessly doesn't mean they can listen. So I try to keep it short and sweet. And short and sweet's even more important when it's light and hot in the summer.
So maybe I'll ease up a bit on this end because clients ease up on their end. That's makes sense.
Yet even with the easing up, the need to stay on top of markets doesn't ease up. In the past, that led to almost-obsessive checking of computer screens, reading the latest opinions about the state of the markets, and where things "should" go.
That's changed. First of all, over time, we've developed really efficient checklists to stay on top of things. No need to obssess. Just check things off. And we've got some really good indicators that give us a pretty good view of the state of the markets.
About those indicators, here's a quick and dirty summing up of what they're saying:
Stocks haven't given up the ghost of this longest-running bull market - yet. And the "Melt-Up" that some have called for remains a distinct possibility in the coming months.
Bonds have surprised most of us who thought that their historic bull market must surely be drawing to a close. What's really been surprising has been the possibility that what seemed like the low point of yields (and, conversely, high point of bond prices) in July 2016 may not prove to be the low point. It's possible, given the relentless downward trend in yields in recent months, that we could revisit those lows. Few believed that possible. But there it is.
Gold may be the most intriguing asset right now. It's recent action has been signalling a resumption of the historic bull market that began in 2000-2001, that went into correction in 2011. Given that it's 2019, that's a long correction. But things don't always (or hardly ever) follow a script when it comes to markets.
With that, one puzzlment has been silver. Typically in a strong gold bull market, silver catches fire and winds up out-performing gold. That hasn't happened. The ratio of gold to silver has been hovering around 92 to 1. That's high - almost at the 100-1 levels of the 1970s before silver took off. We'll keep our eye on silver by checking that ratio. If and when it decidedly narrows, that could signal a strengthening gold bull, with a volatile silver bull to follow.
Meanwhile, none of this has caused us to make any changes to our porfolios.
So enjoy the summer. Unless you're in the business of managing other people's money, you probably won't be checking in with markets as often as do we.
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