It's Been Wild, But Here's What Hasn't Happened Yet
What can you say about market action these past couple of weeks. Wild? Yeah, that fits. But is there anything underlying these moves we should be concerned about? Or is it just a panicked reaction to a Coronavirus that'll pass when the virus dies down - which it eventually will.
OK. So the concern with the supply chain remains. That's something that will effect all of us, even if not all of us get sick. Recent reports that China has "fired up" its manufacturing facilities implies: no supply chain worries. But do we really want to believe reports coming out of China that all is back to normal? Since when does truth flow freely from a Communist government?
So let's keep supply chain concerns on the table for now. One suggestion we read that might help us assess the state of the world's supply chains focuses on your local Dollar Store. If you see shelves emptying, it's an indicator chains are broken.
Speaking of emptying, have you tried obtaining hand sanitizer lately? What about disinfectant products. Around our parts, hand sanitizer has disappeared from store shelves. Disinfectants can be found - at least some. The ones we wanted are gone. We'll manage.
How we'll manage: We use our sanitizer a lot. (Yeah, we found some online from an institutional source that supplies hospitals. Had to buy in bulk, though. We've likely got enough to last a coupe of life times. I suppose we'll share at some point.)
How to use sanitizer: Do your own research, but what we do is put it at every entrance to our house. You open the door and clean your hands. Then you walk in. Got some in the car too. You drive, get out, do whatever you do, get in the car and first thing you do is sanitize your hands. Sometimes I'll even wipe the steering wheel with a Clorox disinfectant wipe - plus any other surface I'm going to touch like the gear shift, door handles, glove compartment handle, etc.
Again, do your own research. Main thing you'll find if you do: Wash your hands - a lot. And don't touch your face. Both take some discipline, the latter even more.
So far, so good re the spread of this thing. But it's just getting started. I've been watching Italy's statistics and things have heated up this past week. They were thinking if cases eased, the worst was past. They didn't. Now the government has quarantined northern regions that house 16 million people. It's not quite a Chinese-style draconian quarantine. Then again, depending on the diseases spread, who knows, it may get to that point.
As for market action, I'm in the camp that thinks it's not just about a Coronavirus. I'm willing to concede that if supply chains really break badly a recession will ensue. And we could get a nasty bear market - at least for a while. But there's other stuff going on that's been building for years. And it won't go away even if supply chains hold up. There's a bear out there stalking.
So while the stalking bear hasn't taken a bit bite out of us yet, while the recession that inevitably accompanies any business cycle hasn't manifested itself yet (at least it doesn't seem to have), here's an image to remind us what can happen. Recall that complex systems - and ours is that - are inherently fragile. The next straw or snow flake may be the one that sets off some sort of collapse or avalanche.
Like the one this link takes you to.
It's from the Facebook page of my favorite trainer, Tony Horton. His comment: "Mother Nature does what she wants, when she wants."
It hasn't happened yet in the markets or the economy - although at times it's felt like something close to it has.
A scary thought: Maybe there's a Mother Market?
OK. So the concern with the supply chain remains. That's something that will effect all of us, even if not all of us get sick. Recent reports that China has "fired up" its manufacturing facilities implies: no supply chain worries. But do we really want to believe reports coming out of China that all is back to normal? Since when does truth flow freely from a Communist government?
So let's keep supply chain concerns on the table for now. One suggestion we read that might help us assess the state of the world's supply chains focuses on your local Dollar Store. If you see shelves emptying, it's an indicator chains are broken.
Speaking of emptying, have you tried obtaining hand sanitizer lately? What about disinfectant products. Around our parts, hand sanitizer has disappeared from store shelves. Disinfectants can be found - at least some. The ones we wanted are gone. We'll manage.
How we'll manage: We use our sanitizer a lot. (Yeah, we found some online from an institutional source that supplies hospitals. Had to buy in bulk, though. We've likely got enough to last a coupe of life times. I suppose we'll share at some point.)
How to use sanitizer: Do your own research, but what we do is put it at every entrance to our house. You open the door and clean your hands. Then you walk in. Got some in the car too. You drive, get out, do whatever you do, get in the car and first thing you do is sanitize your hands. Sometimes I'll even wipe the steering wheel with a Clorox disinfectant wipe - plus any other surface I'm going to touch like the gear shift, door handles, glove compartment handle, etc.
Again, do your own research. Main thing you'll find if you do: Wash your hands - a lot. And don't touch your face. Both take some discipline, the latter even more.
So far, so good re the spread of this thing. But it's just getting started. I've been watching Italy's statistics and things have heated up this past week. They were thinking if cases eased, the worst was past. They didn't. Now the government has quarantined northern regions that house 16 million people. It's not quite a Chinese-style draconian quarantine. Then again, depending on the diseases spread, who knows, it may get to that point.
As for market action, I'm in the camp that thinks it's not just about a Coronavirus. I'm willing to concede that if supply chains really break badly a recession will ensue. And we could get a nasty bear market - at least for a while. But there's other stuff going on that's been building for years. And it won't go away even if supply chains hold up. There's a bear out there stalking.
So while the stalking bear hasn't taken a bit bite out of us yet, while the recession that inevitably accompanies any business cycle hasn't manifested itself yet (at least it doesn't seem to have), here's an image to remind us what can happen. Recall that complex systems - and ours is that - are inherently fragile. The next straw or snow flake may be the one that sets off some sort of collapse or avalanche.
Like the one this link takes you to.
It's from the Facebook page of my favorite trainer, Tony Horton. His comment: "Mother Nature does what she wants, when she wants."
It hasn't happened yet in the markets or the economy - although at times it's felt like something close to it has.
A scary thought: Maybe there's a Mother Market?
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