Some Reminders as We Enter the Next Phase of Everything

The next phase of everything begins soon. Here are some reminders to help us get through what may be, as the Chinese say, "interesting" times.

First, let's identify some of the items that will accompany this next phase. 

The Election:

We'll soon be voting. And when all is said and done, there's a good chance results will be questioned. How long the questioning drags out is anyone's guess. But I'd be shocked if - like 4 years ago - we know who's going to President for the next four years.

With that, we'll likely find a new round of demonstrations and riots. Forces that are chomping at the bit as we speak have been preparing for this moment when they can create the greatest disruption possible. Why? These forces want to "transform" our form of government, in addition to our society, into one that can fairly be described as Marxist-Socialist-Communist. (Take your pick.) If you don't see this or understand it, you'd do well to try to get up to speed ASAP. 

One caveat here: The stories being pushed by the MMM focus on "right-wing extremest" groups. I mention this because it's likely being pushed to divert your attention from the real culprits of social unrest (to put it mildly). You don't hear much about Antifa, or the organization known as Black Lives Matter. This alone tips us off that we're in for some rough times with bad guys who want to take over our government and make us all kow-tow to their Marxist-Socialist-Communist agenda. 

What sealed the deal for my understanding that this right-wing stuff is a diversionary tactic were some family, friends and clients who expressed the view that the danger to us all would be from this right-wing groups. It's painful to hear relatively intelligent people be taken in by this propaganda. I've tried to refocus their thoughts a bit by asking if they've ever witnessed right-wing groups (and they do exist) rioting and burning down cities. I don't know how much that's helped them see the light because I don't press very hard with this. I value the relationships I have and refuse to allow political controversies to destroy these.

The Coronavirus:

Even if you believe this baby is simply - at the end of the day - a strain of cold for most folks, rather than a lethal threat (notice I said "most"), we very well could find ourselves in some new phase of economic debacle if the incidents of cases and hospitalizations fire up as they apparently have in some parts of the world. Governments are reacting to these in those areas by reverting to shutting down the local economy. We've got some of this in New York, as certain neighborhoods have been seeing spikes of cases.

Now, the increase in "cases" probably mostly comes about because there's been a flood of testing sweeping across the country. More tests will naturally identify more folks with the virus. But just having the virus doesn't necessarily pose a huge national threat. The hospitalizations are another matter. If we see a surge there, it means (or should mean) that folks have symptoms needing attention. Of course, even this doesn't mean we all shut the door and quarantine again as we did last spring. Having symptoms and taking treatment to prevent the virus from doing too much damage isn't much different than those having the flu treating it in some way to avoid getting super-sick, possibly dying.

My guess here: We'll likely have some sort of second wave that causes economic disruption to some degree. Will governments overreact and create more trouble than the disease is worth? Don't be surprised is they do. But for that reason, be prepared. 

Check your food stocks and your supply of household items. There could be disruption of the supply chains again if governments strong-arm businesses into shutting down. It doesn't take that much effort or money to stock up. It's simply the prudent thing to do.

Depending on the course of the post-election fireworks and the intensity of the possible second wave of the virus, we may be in yet another "new" world, one that's extending what began in March, or possibly morphing into something else. If you're not mentally and emotionally tough here, things could find you at best puzzled and troubled, at worst a fearful basket case. Don't let that happen. 

Keep your head by minimizing contact with MMM. But don't think "alternative" media" is the answer. Some of these sources go out of their way to downplay the virus and pooh-pooh any talk of second wave, going so far as to say the threat is over. If you buy that and governments impose a new round of measures hammering the economy, are you going to spend your time proving that governments are wrong? What purpose will that serve? Better to just be prepared. If government actions are wrong, you still have to deal with them. 

Finally - as if it needs saying - for those of us concerned with the financial markets:

Yeah, this next phase will impact everything there too. It's no secret, but markets will likely be volatile. Likely more volatile than the volatility we've seen recently. Since no one knows for sure what the heck is going on, both the people who trade and the algorithms of the high-frequency traders will be in "reaction" mode. When there's no consensus of any kind about near or mid-term trend, it means everyone's trying to ferret what that trend might be. So every time a mini-trend seems to be establishing itself, they react: into stocks/out of stocks; into bonds/out of bonds; into gold/out of gold, etc. Eventually the trends will become clearer, but it's unlikely they will before year-end.

So expect whipsaws, if not draconian downdrafts (e.g., a stock market crash).

Meanwhile, since, as we recently noted, there's more to life than the election - or the virus, the economy and the markets, for that matter - get on with what gives you some sense of peace and stability. If you haven't figured that out yet, then take some time on this fall Sunday to start figuring.