A Bunch of Wet Blankets Covering Up Reality

One way to process all that's going on these days might be to think of much of it as a kind of wet blanket covering up reality. Two most recent wet blankets: The 2020 election drama and the stock market.

The election drama revolves around claims that this election has been "stolen" from Trump. The "stolen" idea has become the latest theme that began with the claim that fraud thoroughly skewed the results in many states, especially a number of the so-called "swing" states. Over recent weeks, the critical mass seems to have been whittled down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia. I don't know if Arizona and Nevada remain in that whittled down clump, but if they are, throw those in too.

Even before the recent chants of "Stop the Steal!" rang out from crowds of Trump supporters, the possibility that fraud was of sufficient volume to swing these states (and maybe others) toward Biden emerged rather quickly - as in the very night of the election. We won't try to re-hash the events that caused the initial outcry. If you've been interested enough to investigate the claims (as much as ordinary citizens can do so), you know what triggered the outcry. If you're not interested, or have simply latched on to the immediate cries that any claim of fraud was "baseless," nothing we print here will likely effect your fixed position.

Between those who refuse to even take a quick look at whether there's any evidence whatsoever that fraud occurred and those who have been claiming there are mountains of evidence to clearly show that's so lies some sort of "reality." We put the word in quotes because these days, it seems to be an exotic, or misunderstood term to many of us. Exotic because there's a contingent out there who spend their days either trying to fashion reality as they decide it should "be," or, if not "creating" reality, believe basically what makes them "feel" good. (On this last point, note how many times people substitute the word "feel" when they should be using "think." Example: I feel Trump has had the election stolen from him. Well, was it stolen or was it not. And what do your feelings about this have to do with it?)

Whatever the reality is - and there is a reality that exists separate and apart from what you or I feel, apart from the narratives that either side have been pushing - that reality ought to be sought by one and all. But that's pretty much wishful thinking these days. Instead, blankets consisting of imaginings, outright lies, manipulative language, feelings, etc. cover reality pretty thoroughly. That's just the way we humans have decided to function.

The stock market these day has been rife with wet blankets covering up reality. Once, the claim was made that the summed up all the available knowledge of all those who participated in the buying and selling of stocks. Maybe it was true. It's hard to believe that's the case now. 

While the Federal Reserve as always fiddled with the economy and the markets, since the tech wreck and subsequent bear market of 2000-2002, that fiddling has mushroom into a full-fledged symphony - although some may call it a cacophony. Since 2000, the dissonance created by the Fed has overwhelmed whatever harmony that rational investors attempt to create by thoughtful, strategic investment decisions. 

Now, to be sure, there's always been an emotional, irrational counterpoint to the rational investor. Fear and greed generally get the better of most of us at one time, then the other. And prices follow such emotions to the moon (greed), until they plummet to the depths of the nether world (fear). These days, however, the Fed throws gallons of fuel onto the normal, and sometimes extreme, human emotions. Their draconian suppression of short-term interest rates since 2008 has distorted long-standing patterns of price movements and valuation metrics. And now, since September of 2019, their intervention at various levels of the markets, on varying points of time, makes it difficult, if not impossible, to determine if a market - or even a specific item for that matter - is under, over, or fairly valued.

And here we can think of all the distortion, dissonance, and cacophony as wet blankets covering the underlying reality that, while always elusive, has now become virtually impossible to ascertain.

In case you're one of those who'd prefer the removal of such blankets in favor of allowing reality to emerge, even if it's not to your particular liking, I'd suggest you'll be waiting for the arrival of the Blanket Removal Brigade for longer than you might wish or even imagine. Today's blankets are particularly big, heavy, and thoroughly soaked with with reality-obscuring liquid that will not soon dry out sufficiently to allow for even a slight displacement.

As a result, those seeking the reality - the truth - about our recent elections will, unless something radically changes, continue to seek. And those who aspire to invest with a strategy requiring some measure of rationally determining the value of the asset or item they want to buy or sell will likely find themselves frustrated.

It's just how things are these days in our wet blanket world.