Taking Some Time Off

Hard to believe, but it's the week before Labor Day - the day that unofficially marks the end of summer. Recent weeks brought some slow-down in business for many of us. It's just the natural waxing and waning - in this case waning - that the seasons visit on commercial activity. Soon that will reverse, as we move into September.

With that, this coming week has always been a good time to "take off" - as much as one who runs a small business (in my case) can actually be "off."

What about you? Will things ease up for you this coming week. Have they eased up a bit in recent weeks? Yes, even with the increase in our C-Virus Mess, have you found some respite from your daily labors, even if not from your cares?

While we humans benefit from the respite of late summer, can the same be said of financial markets? Well, market are made up of human beings engaging in millions of transactions. Yes, even institutional investment outfits - including pension plans and endowments - consist of human beings making decisions about allocation of the money they're entrusted to manage. So if those humans avail themselves of the respite of late summer, we have to conclude that markets will follow suit.

But wait. What about the preeminence of algo-trading in recent years? The answer may still be yes. Humans still program the algorithms that trigger the millions of buys and sells that comprise - we've read - up to 80% of all market activity. And since those algorithms apparently incorporate news and rumors, if the humans generating such news and rumors are taking a break, perhaps there's less juice to drive markets one way or the other.

However all this plays out, it's not crazy to think we're in for a quiet week. 

Then again, anything can happen. Look at the Afghanistan debacle. Did anyone anticipate that? Indeed, who could have imagined a government directing the most powerful military in the world seemingly botching a long-planned withdrawal from that country? But there it is, for all the world to see.

Oh, before we forget, who thought that our C-Virus Mess would return with a vengeance, as it has in recent weeks. Our country's local governments now impose restrictions, require "Vaccine Passports" to access various venues and participate in various activities, and consider forms of lock-downs, including delayed "return-to-office" deadlines, school openings, etc. Never mind the shocking draconian measures being taken by the governments of Australia and New Zealand. (We could add those imposed in parts of China, of course, but draconian totalitarian policies are nothing new there.)

And last but not least, there's the recent plethora of natural disasters including massive wild fires, tropical storms and hurricanes (the latest of which is barreling towards Louisiana right now, with winds up to 150 MPH). Add to this the massive debt build-up that serves as what seems an eternal and infinite backdrop to all economic activity. Some believe it can hold up like a kind of fiscal Hoover Dam. Others see cracks forming as warning signs of an impending collapse. 

Will any of this disturb the typically quiet week of market activity that usually accompanies the waning days of summer? We'll soon find out. If the worst happens, then any time off planned may be short-lived. But that could very well be the least of our problems.