How Knowing History Helps

Too many of us don't know history. The younger we are, the less we've been taught. It's as if history simply doesn't matter. But it does. It matters in so many ways. One simple way is how it helps us understand better what's going on around us here and now. Let's look at examples from the Russian-Ukrainian war and the markets.

We have family members whose ancestors and whose relatives are Ukrainian. The war affects us deeply. Even if you don't, you can't escape all the news being reported day and night. War does that. It captures our attention one way or another. Count your blessings if it's not capturing yours with bullets, bombs, and missiles.

Even before Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian history, if you knew your history, you know that conflict between Russia and Ukraine is baked in the cake. A quick summary of why is simply that the Russian government has, for centuries, occupied and bossed around Ukrainians. It started with the Czars and continued under the guise of the Soviet Union. We don't have time to go through a lot of the details here - and there are lots. But some highlights may help our understanding of what's going on right now.

First of all, Ukraine is decidedly, definitely not a part of Russia. Not in any sense. It's people are not Russian. They're Ukrainian. Period. Putin's claims that Ukraine is some sort of "false" nation "carved" out of Russia is a lie. Nor are Ukrainians the Russian's "little brothers." That's absurd. He know it. He's not stupid. He just says that stuff to pull the wool over the eyes of those who don't know history, to justify the monstrous moral evil he has perpetrated invading Ukraine.

If you know history you know all this. If you understand the importance of knowing history, you could find out what you didn't know. Putin can't pull the wool over your eyes.

But, sadly, too many of us don't know history. Worse, too many of us have no interest in learning what we don't know. (After all, we can't know everything!) So we join the ranks of ignoramuses who either fall for the Putins of this world, or we believe everything we're read or we're told, without some reference to reality. 

It's part of the reason (but only a part) why the world is a mess, has always been a mess. (And it's part of the reason why our recent C-Virus Mess sprouted and spread as it did with masks, distancing, mandates, passports, and all the rest.)

As for the markets, well, it's hard to fathom how you can get any perspective on what's happening now without any knowledge of history. When this past week began, Russia hadn't invaded yet. But there were rumors of war. Market reacted to all that. And when Russia did invade, it plunged - only to recover completely, all within the same session. 

If you had known history, you'd have known that the chances were good that any plunge would not last all that long. Which may be what we're seeing. Then again, if you know history, you may find that when plunges did occur as a result of wars, disasters, crises, etc. those that did not fully recover pretty quickly were likely already in the pot boiling. 

With that, here's a take based on history and on what the market was already signalling whether or not Russia invaded Ukraine: the market's fall will recover for a while. But it was already slated to take a bigger, more lasting plunge - one that started as the New Year started. If so, it could finally be the end of great Bull Market that started in 2009.

As for the war, Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict for centuries, mostly because Russia has always - at least since Peter the Great - wanted to be an Empire that dominates its neighbors, as in total domination. Given the history, we can only hope the current terrible manifestation of that conflict will end without too much death and destruction. As for the long-term prospects for a resolution of centuries of Russian attempts to push the Ukrainians around, we can only pray that God, in His Goodness, grants at least some semblance of a more lasting peace.

God's history is a good one. Think: Jesus Christ. Humanity's history, not so good.