The Fog of War and More

Spring arrives bringing us its special share of fog. We seem to get a tad more this time of year than other times. And so we exercise caution if we have to travel.

Fog obscures more than the roads. It famously hides the goings-on of war. We rarely get to see what's really going on once the bullets and bombs start flying. And so we get the phrase "the fog of war."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war it has ignited is no exception. So many "reports" from so many sources. Which are true, which mistaken, which false? How do we know?

We get reports of Russians who have protested this invasion: some ordinary people protesting, some prominent individuals speaking out. Ukrainians may take heart from these. On the other hand a recent report cites a poll taken in Russia that the vast majority of its citizens support Putin and this war. It contradicts the "mad Vlad" theme that others have proferred over and over again.

What do we believe?

So fog can obscure the roads we travel. It can obscure what's really going on in war. It obscures what's really going on in markets too. And maybe it's particularly heavy right now.

After all, this past week we heard the Fed not only raise its Fed rate, but more or less guarantee six more such rate increases this year. What did stocks do? They shot up. But aren't stocks supposed to dread Fed rate increases? What's going on?

Of course, various pundit's theories poured out purporting to explain the stock market's happy reception of this erstwhile terrible news. We won't waste your time reviewing these. It's likely few are right anyway. And, naturally, all the wrong interpretations just add to the fog.

But we already had lots of fog. As the major indices relentlessly went up last year, most of their components went down. So, overall, the index went down, right? No. Since many of the prominent indices are "cap-weighted," the bigger companies - those that weigh heaviest - drag their index however they choose. That's why folks can lose quite a bit as the index rises. The index becomes fog.

I've driven in fog, typically not by choice. Just got caught in it during a trip. I hope never to drive in fog again. 

Regarding the terrible war in Ukraine, all I can do I pray for those in it, especially, of course, the Ukrainian people caught up in it. The fog will likely obscure the actual goings-on, so I don't spend too much time wondering what's really happening.

As for the markets, fog has always been a faithful - albeit typically unwelcome as well as unfriendly - companion in my dealings with them. Be it stocks, bonds, gold, silver, commodities, real estate - you name it - there's usually enough fog to throw off even the most astute investors. 

We not-particularly-brilliant minds who must grapple with all that fog as we make our investing decisions simply find ways to do our best despite the fog. Some ways work better than others. If I had some magic knife to cut through the fog consistently, I'd share it with you. I don't.

But I can share this: 

All of this fog should remind us of what Plato so eloquently perceived in ancient times: We see only shadows in this life of ours. And after Plato made his point, we've been blessed that other wise men have picked up on Plato's image of us folks living in caves seeing only the shadows of what's "really real." 

You'll find all this if you study philosophy. You'll find even more if you look for those religions that extend and amplify the search for Truth.

May I highly recommend the Catholic Church's unparalleled efforts , specifically its timeless traditional expression of the Truth revealed in the life of Jesus Christ, passed on to His apostles, passed on by them to an unbroken line of Bishops, especially those who take seriously that their job is to preserve those traditional teachings. 

It may take some doing to work your way through the treasury of Truth taught by the Church. But as you do, you'll slowly, steadily see the fog lifting.