Sometimes You Have to Decide: Is It This or That?

Sometimes, whether in our view of markets, the economy, or life in general, you have to decide: Is it this or that?

"This or That" comes with the territory during our sojourn on this earth. Things are mostly never crystal clear. On top of that, things are not exactly what they seem - sometimes never what they seem. Check out Plato's cave if you're not familiar with it. We don't see things directly, just images. And sometimes those images fall very short of what they struggle to represent.

Our perception is one thing; reality another.

Unfortunately, with the tsunami of "relativism" that has thoroughly infected our world, to few of us think about this or consider it worthy of our thought if it somehow crosses our stream of digital consciousness.

Digital consciousness? Yes, I think that's what most of us possess these days. The endless stream of digital data to which we subject ourselves flows, for too many of us, without respite of any kind. Through screens, ear buds, ambient noise, it never ceases. We can, of course, cut ourselves off - even if only for some moments. But when we don't do that, we have no time to think.

When we don't ourselves think, a powerful vacuum is formed that sucks in all that digital input. And in some fashion, each individual shapes that input into pretend thought - as opposed to real thought. 

Real thought comes from us, not from stuff that's force fed to us. Before the digital age, we read, we listened to others. Then we tossed what we took in, sorted through it, and thought about it. It's a distinctly different process from what we do now.

Oh, many of us pretend to use some form of discretion when it comes to the avalanche of digital information that never ends. But are we really thinking? Or are we simply tossing sorting, then plugging and playing this collection of digital bits rather than that? 

Worse, this plug and play process typically leverages off of our feelings. Again, there's not a real thought process here. It's all about how we feel: I feel that this is right; I feel that that is wrong. 

We feel about everything. Thought doesn't enter the picture.

All of this is a prelude to the subject of deciding: Is it this or that?

 If you decide based on feeling, what are your chances of being right? And please don't change the subject with talk of "intuition." Sure, that carries some weight - sometimes. But not always. It's simply not the meat and potatoes of decision-making.

Decision-making needs to be based on facts. And if you can't get all the facts, on as many as you can get. With that, you look things over with your mind, i.e., use your brain (intellect). You evaluate and come to a decision.

Not everything requires a decision. Lots of facts float around out there that don't require us to decide anything. The sun rises in the morning. It's a fact. We don't need to decide anything for it to happen.

To narrow things down, if turn to the markets the economy, we can scoop up lots of facts if we're careful. Getting back to the digital world most of us operate in, we have to be careful with what is purported to be facts and find real facts. If you're surrounded only by digital drek and don't know how to think, good luck.

We could expand on this but it could turn into a thesis or chapter in a book. Not time for that now.

Instead, here are a couple of decisions I've made to answer two questions: 

• Are we in a Bear Market?
• Are we in a Recession?
  

I made a decision on these. Frankly I had to make a decision. Here goes.

Are we in a Bear Market (this) or is this just another correction in the long-running Bull Market that started in 2009 (that)? I went with this.

Are we in a Recession (this), or is the economy strong enough to shake off the statistics that point to Recession and pick itself up and keep roaring ahead, based on the facts of low unemployment and strong earnings reports by various companies (that)? (Kind of a long question, isn't it?) I went with this.

I tried to base my decision on the facts that I found that I could verify in some way. 

So there it is. And I didn't have any feelings about any or it.

What about you?