It's Still Hurricane Season

Reminder: Hurricane season isn't over yet. It goes to November. If you're in a part of the world subject to hurricanes, stay awake. Indeed, here in the Northeast we may get a good shot of rain some time next week, depending on the path of a developing storm.

The reminder came from a weather report. I still catch these from time to time. Sure I can get most of what I need about weather from my app. But there's nothing about what may come, no reminders that it's still hurricane season. 

A friend has some sites he checks. He says the folks running them are particularly astute and accurate about weather patterns and what to expect. He really likes these sites and understands weather better than most. Short of getting into the habit of checking those sites - which he has generously shared with me - I check my TV from time to time, or maybe Weather.com. (Hey, haven't checked in with them in a while, now that I think about it.)

All of which brings us to Friday's ginormous lift in stock prices. It grabs our attention, doesn't it. Wow! Maybe we won't lose our shirt after all. Things are lookin' up!

Then we check out a chart of SPY, the ETF for the S&P. And...well, check it out:

Now that's a reminder, isn't it? Does it need any special analysis or explanation. Mostly not.

Well, maybe one thing: The big jump didn't even exceed recent bounces. And recent bounces haven't even retraced 50% of the last high. And all the highs are in descending order.

We're still in hurricane season. 

OK, maybe we all know that. But here's what may fool us soon. There could be a really strong, sustained rise coming up - maybe November, maybe December. If not then, don't be surprised if 2023 opens with a blast. And then it'll be bells, whistles, and sirens announcing the end of hurricane season. 

Sadly, some of us may hear that siren song and plow back in. Then again, some may plow in anyway with the thought of clipping some profits before things head south again. If you've got the knowledge and the skill, go for it.

But just remember that the end of the hurricane season sometimes doesn't come when we think it does.