"Quiet Time" In The Economy and The Markets?

Seems strange to call this a "quiet time" in the economy and the markets. This after the collapse of all those banks, including the TBTF (too big to fail) SIFI (systematically important financial institution), Credit Suisse, now of happy (?) memory. (It's an old phrase referring to those - typically loved ones - who've died. A little dark humor.)

Anyway, despite all this, with some hiccups following the events. things remain in a trading range in the markets. And the economy - if you believe our esteemed leaders in government, along with the Fed's assessments of things - is mostly humming along.

These quiet "head fakes" occur with regularity in the course of things. Life is like that. Much as too many of us are immersed in emotional "drama" much of the time, that's not how things really unfold. 

Emotional drama? Yeah, it's all over the place these days, especially with younger folk. Not that the more supposedly mature amongst us are immune from it; but it does seem that the younger they are, the more their lives seem to be caught up in a weird kind of reality show: Reality show connect with someone's actual life, highlighting those parts of it that might attract viewers. But some folks seem to imitate the reality shows that, in their perverse way, imitate life. 

It's an imitation of an imitation - not really life itself.

Clear? If not, forget it. It's a rabbit hole looking for suckers to crawl in. So let's not spend any more time trying to analyze this drama thing. But I suspect you know it's there, and know what I'm getting at.

Now, the media does it's best to gin up drama at "quiet times" like this. They can't stand the hum-drum that marks the bulk of the lives of those of us who've managed to resist spending our lives in an imitation of a reality show. So they keep coming up with all sorts of items to shake us up, lots of which is meant to scare us. 

(And that goes for those agencies of governments that managed to create the Mess that surrounded the whole Covid thing. For example, now that Covid's taking a back seat, there's some sort of fungus they're touting that's supposedly spreading like wildfire these days. If you haven't heard about it, let's just let it lay, rather than feed the fear fire. But don't worry, there will be more to come if the fungus doesn't create a big enough crisis or scare enough folks half to death.)

Anyway, this quiet time in the markets and the economy doesn't mean the crisis that began with the bank collapses has just disappeared. Crisis? Yup. The canary in the coal mine died. It's not coming back to life with a, "Hey, just joking." Those collapses were the credit event that typically kicks off a crisis. Indeed, it's likely to be kicking off a credit crisis.

These things don't just explode. The first shot across the bow - for example the bank collapses - sends a signal. Then things begin to fall into place.

Best guess: That's where we're at now, albeit stuck in this quiet time.

If it seems to make sense, you might trade this thing. Or you might just check your investments and decide if they're in the shape you want them when the crisis really picks up steam.

Oh, and check your overall financial life as well:

Got enough money in your Emergency Fund? You know, if the economy starts tanking big time (recession, or Big Recession, or...the Big D) jobs will be lost. Heck, lots of tech companies already have a leg up on all that, as well as some other high profile players like Amazon. And don't make the mistake of thinking your industry, company, or your job will be immune. Crises don't take prisoners. They attack. They kill.

And let's not forget your cash, as in money in the bank. Make sure it's FDIC insured. You know, no more than $250,000 per person. If you've got more than that, either open an account at another bank, or maybe...well, we're not giving any specific advice here, so we'll leave it at that. Do your homework and you'll find ways to make more than $250,000 safe, as in FDIC insured.

For now, with the lull of quiet time lingering around us, it's the weekend - time for some respite from the daily grind. Hope you enjoy yours.