An Opportunity For Everyone?

The investment world is fraught with "opportunities." Not everyone can benefit from each idea that flows from the fevered brains of analysts and portfolio managers. In fact, assuming such-and-such opportunity likely won't make your portfolio sizzle is likely a good approach. There's just too much stuff ginned up strictly because this or that "guru" needs something to offer on any particular day.

But maybe we've got an opportunity that applies to everyone. First, a little background:

While the exact time of the commencement of World War II can be debated, one date you'll find is September 1, 1939. That's when the Germans invaded Poland. That triggered declarations of war from countries who had signed on to a pact promising if one country was attacked, the others would in some way ride to the rescue. The first step of riding to the rescue was to declare war.

Thus the UK declared war on Germany when Germany invaded Poland. The Brits were now at war. But as opposed to the Poles, there were no German forces to defend against - for quite a while. The quiet stretch before Germany unleashed its air force on London and other British cities. During that stretch, the British people came up with the phrase "The Phony War" to describe the lack of action.

Back to the opportunity for everyone.

We're in a kind of "phone crisis" now. If you believe a crisis is brewing (as we do), you might be expecting more drama. But since those bank collapses, it's been eerily quiet. Even the stock market - arguably the Great Drama Queen of financial markets - has been moping around. Sure, there have been some volatile swings up or down. But it's been weeks of trading range action. Some weeks you're up, some down. Bonds and Gold have joined the party as well.

And no bank problems for a while, as well.

So we're in this quiet "phony crisis" - for now. Why not take the opportunity to step back and carefully go over all your finances to see if they're in shape to deal with the coming storm? 

And not just hour finances, but your overall material possessions as well. 

For example, check your back-ups like emergency cash, supplied, including food, just for starters. This is the time to decide where you should be. If you need adjustments, do that now. It's better - easier really - to do this before the "shooting" begins. 

Whether you're rich, poor, or in between you'll benefit. Make sense?

Good luck.

And while we're at it, if you're inclined to contemplate pearls of wisdom to spur you're own thinking when it comes to matters financial, here are a few more Notes we've taken upon reading/analyzing the wisdom proffered by the members of our "Brain Trust":

-   Historic Credit Crisis has begun.

-   Stock Market now under distribution by big, smart money.

-   Technicals show Stock Market bearish – Given poor credit markets, April rally should be shorter than usual.

-   Russell 2000 and VALUG badly lagging Dow and S&P – Only about a dozen big stocks account for most the rise in the S&P

-   Market internals and credit market fundamentals looking more bearish all the time.

-   Gold: Technicals say will have strong correction after hitting highs. – But long-term charts remain bullish

-   Credit crunch being created by banks (doing the Fed’s work?). The economy and real estate dependent on smaller banks. Bankruptcies should now accelerate.

-   Greatest plunge in new business loans in recorded history/sharpest tightening of credit in history.

-   M-2 Money Supply – huge plunge year over year – down 2.35% similar to Great Depression.

-   If govt raises taxes as it has proposed, would be same situation as Great Depression – And if Fed floods system with liquidity, will get high inflation.

-   2 possible reasons for banks’ unwillingness to extend loans: economic uncertainty; or they don’t have the reserves to make loans. D believes it’s both.

-   Banks already borrowing billions from Fed to make up for huge outflows of deposits.

-   Possible solution to CRE (commercial real estate) loans: Big banks to extend – But big problem is with smaller banks

-   Thinks false employment and false inflation numbers will eventually be exposed, which could result in rush to exits for stock markets.

-   If a record contraction of credit persists, we’ll get a record Stock Market contraction.

-   Morgan Stanley says commercial real estate values could decline 40%

-   As previous statistics are adjusted, will reveal we are already in a serious recession, which will get much worse. Now that big smart money has exited stocks, statistics can be adjusted/revealed.

-   AI: If AI accelerates fake stories so that people don’t believe anything, would lead to economic implosion.

-   Expecting plunge in markets by October, perhaps much sooner.