Enjoying the Labor Day Weekend - What's Coming Next?

Kick up your feet and enjoy the Labor Day Weekend. Apparently lots of folks have hit the roads and the air space. Maybe you did that. Or maybe you stayed put and just welcomed the time off from the daily grind.

Of course, running a small business doesn't really allow for total kick up and enjoy. There's always some loose ends to tie up. And in our compliance-riddled financial services business, we've got continuing education requirement of various flavors to address. While we typically attend multiple webinars every week that advance our professional knowledge and capabilities to the benefit of our client, there's some Continuing Ed that does little to increase anything I can think of. We addressed one of these this past week and renewed a license that depends on it. Fun.

But since we have a merciful and loving God, if He wills maybe we will get a little respite, above and beyond that which we try to squeeze out on weekends. 

So that's our story. What about yours? Traveling? Staying home? Tying up loose ends before that first cocktail of the extended weekend? Whatever it is, enjoy something. Enjoy it while you can.

You see, we've been preparing for something to happen this fall, let's say sometime during September or October. Yeah, that's not the general feeling out there. Things have been just floating along for so long, the same folks who waved the red flag of recession as 2023 began have now flipped into the "No Recession" camp. And Wall Street, as it always does, has pulled out the double-barrelled propaganda shotguns and insisted that the stock market will keep climbing ever-higher.

Well, we've talked about all this and won't bore you with a repeat screed. Instead, we'll just lay out some "Big Picture" stuff that we've prepared for over recent months.

(By the way, we were going to say that we've mostly gotten past all the shut-downs, vaccine mandates, masks, etc. But with the latest whatever-it's-called Covid variant creeping over the landscape like World War I mustard gas, we wouldn't be surprised our overlords don't try to repeat the draconian demands that characterized the Covid Mess that finally ended over the last year.)

Anyway, the items we'll list are part of trends that already launched themselves over recent years. The riots that exploded after the Covid Mess began were a notable manifestation of those trends. And those underlying trends pretty much remain. 

So the "storm" that may be brewing will spring from some or many of these trends intensifying - so much so that our business and personal lives could be shaken in a manner that recalls the dark days of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis. Recalls, or may even surpasses that time (which most folks have likely forgotten already!).

Let's be specific. Here's what may happen before the year ends:

- A Stock Market Crash, or severe decline. Could be like 2008 where stocks fell in a few short months. Or could be like 2000-2001-2002 where the Dot Com Bubble imploded and most stocks declined for three straight years. Not great for our 401ks or retirement plans.

- A Credit Crisis. Credit is already tightening, which means the liquidity that greases the gears of the financial markets and our economy is drying up. It's already harder or impossible for certain businesses to get financing or to re-finance outstanding loans. Bankruptcies are up. 

- A Banking Crisis: We've all been assured by the government and Wall Street that the seemingly sudden collapse of some of our largest U.S. banks, and the Swiss giant Credit Suisse were some sort of anomaly that's behind us. Don't count on it. Certain businesses, like commercial real estate, relay on regional banks for their financing. And regional banks are the most at risk. Hence, they have already stopped making or refinancing loans to existing customers, never mind new ones.

- An Economic Recession: Sure, it could be Recession Lite. Or it could be something much worse. We have no way of knowing, although the argument can be made that it's already begun. And the further argument could be made (logically we might add) that the policies of the Fed and the government that artificially held interest rates at zero (or below) since 2008 created a bubble of proportions that will implode with vicious intensity. We'll see.

(We actually believe a recession has already unfolded and that it would be a huge surprise if it were of the "Lite" variety.)

If some or all of that hits us (or we should really say when) the social disruptions that rocked our country after George Floyd's death (may he rest in peace), may explode again, possibly worse than last time.

We'll stop there.  It's always possible that the Fed and their partners in crime, our federal government, will manage yet another kick of the can. Just remember that if these don't manifest this fall, they will soon enough.

But that's no reason to kick up those heels for now. Why not? After all, life really isn't a bowl of cherries. Right?