A Bit of the Bubbly?

A bit of the bubbly goes a long way. At least that's been my experience. And since it's a family members birthday this weekend, there's a chance we may find out if that's still the case.

Then again, maybe not. We may decide to preserve what bubbly we've got in our stash for another occasion. And with inflation continuing to drain our food budget, preserving might be the better choice. Who knows? If the "I Thing" follows similar patterns last seen from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s, that bubbly could be worth a few more shekels soon.

Of course, what good does it do to have a pricey bottle of bubbly, sitting un-drunk (no pun intended) in some lonely dark place?

That's one sort of bubbly - a good one. Another sort is the one that some say applies to the stock market.

In a recent article, the famous Ray Dalio opines on the stock market and thinks it's a bit bubbly - which means it's in not that much of a bubble, as I understood his comments. Mr. Dalio created and built the biggest hedge fund combine in the world. He's considered somewhat of an investment genius. He's got resources far above and beyond that of of just about any other investment shop, never mind those of the typical individual investor. And now, in his later years, being the proverbial elder stateman and somewhat somewhat hands-off of his baby Bridgewater Associates, he offers all sorts of summaries of the ubiquitous research he's developed. 

It would seem he's in "sharing" mode at this stage of his life. His offering does seem sincerely intended to spur thinking on the part of us Great Unwashed with the idea that perhaps we'll benefit in some way.

In any case, he's not of the "We're in a massive Bubble" mentality when it comes to stocks. Just some sort of incipient Bubble.

So buy, right? 

Well, it seems lots of folks are doing just that. Stocks have been grinding higher despite recent slips and falls. So for now, it seems the Bulls have the edge.

Now, not being Dalio's resources, we can't counter or dispute his findings in any way that can stand up to the sheer bulk of his research. On the other hand, we have noticed that the Dow Transports have not confirmed the recent Dow Industrials high. So question: Are they just taking their time? If so, we should see a new high soon. If not, if they don't hit a new high, they're giving a "non-confirmation" signal. That's when one of either the Industrials or Transports hits a new high (or conversely in a Bear Market a new low), signaling a reversal ahead.

Well, if that's confusing, no worries. Just know that the Transports may be signalling some sort of trouble ahead. Or maybe not.

Meanwhile, the Fed Chairman seemed to be saying that they're not through trying to whip inflation now (a phrase famously used by our pooh-bahs in the 1970s). Yet, with that, he also seemed to say that there should be rate cuts in our future. Go figure. Maybe he's just trying to placate the inflation worriers as well as the Wall Street powers-that-be who constantly scream for rate cuts, with the idea that that'll goose the stock market.

It all gets a bit confusing, and frankly a bit much for those of us struggling to live a simple, peaceful life. Ah, for the days when you could save some of what you earned and put it in a safe back, or even in your mattress, and know that it would be worth the same or likely more when you needed it in the future.

(That was the case before the Fed rode to our rescue (?) in 1913 - a story for another time.)

At this point, we simpletons are looking at ways to generate some income from our investments rather than rely so much on an increase in stock prices. After all, there will be a correction of some import one of these days. And for those of us who rely on our investment to eat, stay dry in a comfortable space, and dress reasonably decently rather than in rags, we'd prefer avoiding being in the position of selling our stocks to raise some income when said stocks have fallen into the toilet.

With that, it's on to our special weekend. Our family will get together at some point - a rare event. And one of our loved ones (in fact my dearest) will be celebrating a birthday. And while we're expecting a fair amount of rain during this weekend (What's new?), it'll be something to look forward to.

For now, it's back to the daily grind to wind up another day in the life. It's life that, thanks be to God, is nothing near the rather dreary picture painted by the Beatles so long ago, despite our fill of sadness and tragedy.