What Happens As The Year (2024) Plays Itself Out

Here's what happens as 2024 plays itself out. 

No, don't take this too seriously. After all, it's one man's opinion. And you can find all sorts of differing, even opposing views if you but click away in the Internet. (Indeed, you'll likely find every possible view on every possible subject with enough clicks. But that's a story for another time.)

So click away if you like. We've clicked enough for a lifetime (and we're still here!), so our clicking days have been reined in. We're spending our time on reality, not virtual reality. But in deference to all out there who still insist on clicking for truth, we reference that alternatives available.

With all that said, here's what happens (what, that again?) as 2024 plays itself out:

The stock market will blast higher. And why not? There's nothing to constrain it, given the presence now of the so-called 'Trump Trade" combined with the year-end push higher that is almost (though not 100%) certain to weigh in.

Sure, the market's overvalued. But that's not really news, is it? And considering that many markets in the past that were hugely overvalued blasted higher and higher, why should things be different this time?

Knowing this, can it be so brilliant a conclusion that the same may play out this year? No brilliance needed.

So off we go to the year-end races for the stock market.

As for bonds, they've "threatened" to correct their longer-term down for months and months. Every hint that yields were falling hit various levels of resistance and bounced back up - meaning the price of the bonds increased a bit, then slipped back. But lately yields appear to have broken resistance and have dropped with more abandon, driving up the price of the bonds. So it does appear that bonds will court stocks, hold hands, and rise in price, albeit not as dramatically as stocks.

As for Gold, it's been correcting after a long and powerful run up this year. The thing is, the correction has so far been a real yawn. Now, that doesn't mean we won't see a more substantial drop in price through year-end into 2025. But we're not sure that's in the cards. What is likely in the cards, though, is that Gold will not join the stock and bond party in 2024.

As for the longer-term view, well, it's complicated. But a quick view could be this:

Stocks hit the skids in 2025, but turn up in earnest if the Trump Administration actually gets pro-growth policies in place within its first months. (Remember the Big T has a Republican Congress that could pave the way for some aggressive growth polices. We'll see.)

Bonds will turn back down not too far into 2025 and continue their long-term trend down, a trend that reasonably could last decades - with commensurate higher and higher yields.

As for Gold, it's in a long-term Bull Market. When the Bull rises up again is anyone's guess, but it's hard to believe it would take many more months if that long.

So with that, we turn the page and get back to life in these days before Christmas. Catholics and some Protestants call these days "Advent" - a time of preparation, with serious preparation incorporating some sort of penitential spirit and practice.

There's a whole lot more that could be said about Advent. But it's getting late and it's cold here in the Northeast, and this week's been one of those firm and fully packed work slugs. 

Which basically means, in the appropriate spirit, we wish you a blessed Advent.