Chaos At The Gates?

Is chaos lingering at the gates out there? It's an open question, although not quite a coin toss. One answer would be yes, it is. The reason: The economy has been running on the fumes of debt for years now; the stock market's as overvalued as it's every been - including 1929 right before the Great Crash; the bond market's entered a long-term Bear Market (likely around 2021) and rates will continue to grind higher in the years ahead; the real estate market has bubbled up (as have virtually all assets due to the Fed's easy money since 2008), with the latest adrenaline shot during the Covid Mess boosting house prices into the unaffordable range for just about everyone. 

Another answer would be, yes, but isn't chaos always at the gates in one form or another. After all civilization - when it is not in one of its dysfunctional phases - serves to keep the jungle, the barbarians, however you choose to look at it, in check.  

For now, though, let's take a look at the chaos that government seems to stir up - and perhaps has done so in spades as we speak.

This may be obvious to many of us when it comes to chaos. Indeed, the media has happily fed this sense of chaos as it reports every change of mind and policy of our current President. And, in fairness to the media (for once!) they have a point. Our current head of state, in an effort to change things, seems to be using what he considers a kind of "deal-making" technique in addressing changes in government and changes in foreign policy. (Isn't that his forte?) It's certainly not traditional diplomacy! Some see this as a clever approach. Others see it as an inappropriate and dysfunctional way to run a government.

We'll leave judgement to others here. But let's concede, for one thing, that the constant change in tariff policy has caused those responsible for business planning to sometimes tear their hair out. Does this impact your own business, or the place that you work? If you run a business, you've got to at least have your antennae up to catch the latest iteration of this every-changing tariff policy.

And what about the whole illegal immigration issue? This touches all of us in various ways. The most direct would be those of us who work in an industry that has come to rely on such individuals. Some quick examples:farms that need pickers: perhaps a good chunk of the construction industry, especially local home builders. 

This has been going on for a long time now. And some think it's best to leave well enough alone. This is especially true in the cases where the workers are simply trying to provide for their families. They work hard, keep their nose to the grindstone, and don't cause trouble. But what of that minority who do cause trouble like gang members who perpetrate violence, are involved the drug trade and human trafficking? 

Well, it's a complex issue, but there's one simple common denominator: folks have come into this country illegally. Yes, our own government allowed this. And yes, there was likely collusion with businesses that have benefited from what has been basically cheap labor. But now the shoe is on the other foot. And in the effort to rectify past wrongs, we've seen some examples of over-reach, or, in some cases, outright mistakes made in rounding up suspects. Some of us even know individuals who have been unfairly treated. 

One thing we may keep in mind here, if the government was indifferent to millions coming across our borders illegally - perhaps even encouraging this to some degree - perhaps we must consider this in how we rectify the situation. Consider those who came here under the impression that the government would look the other way, as it indeed did in many instances. They are here now working hard, with their families, perhaps having established a decent life, without relying on government assistance programs. Is it right now to run them out of town on a rail, along with the bad elements? Just a thought.

Moving on, what about efforts to curtail the government's budget, eliminate some agencies, lay off federal employees. We may believe such efforts are a long time coming. But disruption - and chaos - are laced through these efforts. Some of us may work for companies that have come to rely on a financial relationship with the government that is now threatened. But all of us have been subjected - through paying our taxes - to support a government that has far exceeded in size what anyone might have imagined. Certainly this would be true of our Founders, but it seems that as each decade goes by, the growth of government, despite efforts at control, suck up more and more of our tax dollars. 

Still, people be laid off, agencies that will not longer provide benefits to some, have mixed up the pot - to what extent, we still don't know. (Anyone working for the federal government or who has family, friend or neighbor that do knows and feels this.)

But we can't blame the chaos being brewed totally on the current gang in Washington. Much has been bubbling vigorously for years, without as much media coverage. Maybe we'll consider this next time.