What New York's Blizzard of 2010 Means for 2011
We're bracing for a big snowstorm today. Our firm's based in New York City. I live there too. The recent blizzard that hit us on December 26th - 27th was a highly publicized royal pain in the neck. Everyone's thinking the City will handle this snow fall better than they did the last one. Last time, they didn't plow as they normally do in snowstorms.
Right off the bat, I could tell things were screwy. In fact, I was e-mailing a friend who lives in another part of town and comparing notes. That's when I first realized we were looking at some sort of job action by the NYC Sanitation Department - the ones responsible for clearing the roads.
I've lived in NYC for years and have been through some nasty snow-storms. All the excuses the Mayor and his henchmen (or should I say "hench-persons?) were saying made no sense. For example, just because there was lots of wind blowing the snow around (that's what makes a regular snow storm a blizzard) shouldn't have made that much of a difference. We've been through these before.
And yes, I witnessed plows driving up and down already-plowed streets, while streets around them lay untouched. In fact, another friend lives in a neighborhood that - as of New Year's Eve - still hadn't been plowed. And this after the announcement that all streets were fine.
After the slooowwww plowing, the garbage built up up on the streets. There's always some delay in garbage pick-up after a snow storm, since the garbage trucks are used as plows. But, again, it's never taken this long to start picking up the garbage again.
So here's what I think is going on. I think we're seeing the beginning of the effects of cut-backs - as well as the union workers acting resentfully about some of them being laid off. And I really do think this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Now, I don't know how things are where you live. But most municipalities around the country are facing tough times - tougher in 2011 than in 2010. In 2010, the federal government had pumped some money to the states (like around $140 billion!), but that's over now. So now the states are looking at higher deficits and the need for more cutbacks in services and more lay-offs. Ditto for municipalities.
So these sanitation folks are just an example of what you may see more of in 2011: fewer municipal workers to do the job plus union workers taking some sort of job action to express their unhappiness with layoffs.
Now, consider this: if this is just the tip of the iceberg, and we see more layoffs and service cutbacks, 2011 may be a bit messy - in spite of the economy picking up some steam. The fact is, the economy picking up a bit of steam in 2011 isn't going to shore up the deficits that states, cities and towns are facing. So don't count on a bit more GDP this year putting the local crises we're facing behind us. They're probably just beginning.
Here in the Big Apple, we're used to dealing with all sorts of adversity. In fact, we pride ourselves on taking things in stride. Heck, look at 9/11. You have to admit New Yorkers reacted rather remarkably.
But, you know, this is different. There's nothing about union workers taking job actions (and we've got gobs of union workers doing lots of essential services in this city) that's going to bring out the best in us. There's nothing inspiring about municipal union workers not doing they're job. There's nothing about layoffs that's going to bring people together. People are just going to be pretty miffed if these guys don't do their job - the job that our taxes pay for. Oh, right, we're still paying taxes.
On the other hand, when you get right down to it, there's not much you can do when revenues shrivel up and people want the same services provided to them. Well, there is one thing you can do: raise taxes. I suppose that's coming next here. And don't be surprised if that's what happens where you live too.
Well, in any case, the snow's on the way and we'll see what happens this time. Maybe we'll get through this one a little better than last time.
Right off the bat, I could tell things were screwy. In fact, I was e-mailing a friend who lives in another part of town and comparing notes. That's when I first realized we were looking at some sort of job action by the NYC Sanitation Department - the ones responsible for clearing the roads.
I've lived in NYC for years and have been through some nasty snow-storms. All the excuses the Mayor and his henchmen (or should I say "hench-persons?) were saying made no sense. For example, just because there was lots of wind blowing the snow around (that's what makes a regular snow storm a blizzard) shouldn't have made that much of a difference. We've been through these before.
And yes, I witnessed plows driving up and down already-plowed streets, while streets around them lay untouched. In fact, another friend lives in a neighborhood that - as of New Year's Eve - still hadn't been plowed. And this after the announcement that all streets were fine.
After the slooowwww plowing, the garbage built up up on the streets. There's always some delay in garbage pick-up after a snow storm, since the garbage trucks are used as plows. But, again, it's never taken this long to start picking up the garbage again.
So here's what I think is going on. I think we're seeing the beginning of the effects of cut-backs - as well as the union workers acting resentfully about some of them being laid off. And I really do think this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Now, I don't know how things are where you live. But most municipalities around the country are facing tough times - tougher in 2011 than in 2010. In 2010, the federal government had pumped some money to the states (like around $140 billion!), but that's over now. So now the states are looking at higher deficits and the need for more cutbacks in services and more lay-offs. Ditto for municipalities.
So these sanitation folks are just an example of what you may see more of in 2011: fewer municipal workers to do the job plus union workers taking some sort of job action to express their unhappiness with layoffs.
Now, consider this: if this is just the tip of the iceberg, and we see more layoffs and service cutbacks, 2011 may be a bit messy - in spite of the economy picking up some steam. The fact is, the economy picking up a bit of steam in 2011 isn't going to shore up the deficits that states, cities and towns are facing. So don't count on a bit more GDP this year putting the local crises we're facing behind us. They're probably just beginning.
Here in the Big Apple, we're used to dealing with all sorts of adversity. In fact, we pride ourselves on taking things in stride. Heck, look at 9/11. You have to admit New Yorkers reacted rather remarkably.
But, you know, this is different. There's nothing about union workers taking job actions (and we've got gobs of union workers doing lots of essential services in this city) that's going to bring out the best in us. There's nothing inspiring about municipal union workers not doing they're job. There's nothing about layoffs that's going to bring people together. People are just going to be pretty miffed if these guys don't do their job - the job that our taxes pay for. Oh, right, we're still paying taxes.
On the other hand, when you get right down to it, there's not much you can do when revenues shrivel up and people want the same services provided to them. Well, there is one thing you can do: raise taxes. I suppose that's coming next here. And don't be surprised if that's what happens where you live too.
Well, in any case, the snow's on the way and we'll see what happens this time. Maybe we'll get through this one a little better than last time.
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