Big Christmas Sales Coming? Inventory Growth May Provide the Answer
Will we see big sales this Christmas shopping season? By big Christmas sales I don't mean strong sales for puveyors, that is the sellers of goods, during the Christmas shopping season. I mean cuts in prices that benefit the buyers - you and me.
Now I'm not an avid shopper, but even I've noticed some aggressive adds for "Black Friday" sales - Black Friday being the day after Thanksgiving which comes up this week. Of course, don't go by what I say here, since, as I say, I don't shop much and don't like to shop. But you may want to keep your eyes and ears open if you're in the market for Christmas gifts.
Interestingly, the growth in inventories, as recently reported here, can push up GDP numbers, since inventories as a component of how GDP is measured, but unless that increased supply of goods is met by an increased demand, it eventually translates into a slow down in manufacturing:
And so the perverse ways of economic reporting and statistics throws us a bone to chew on: higher inventories increases GDP - for now. It then possibly leads to lower GDP shortly. One thing that this increased inventory report does say, though, is that strong ongoing economic growth has yet to be signalled, despite optimistic reports claiming that the economy is "gaining traction" now, five years after the 2008 debacle that began our ongoing crisis. We're in the woods, still seeking the pathway out.
But don't let all this dampen your Thanksgiving. Rather, focus, as will I, on your family, friends, and of course, the great feast I hope you enjoy in a couple of days. For those of you who have to travel, be alert to the nasty weather which started out west and is just now approaching my Northeast home base. That goes for our son who is flying today - at least we hope he'll be flying, and safely at that.
As for me, I'll be home, though not quite "off," as the cooking duties fall in my lap this year. But not to worry, as we're expecting "only" 8 or 9 people. Then again, if you enjoy cooking up a storm, as I do, the exertion provides its own rewards.
In any case, Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Now I'm not an avid shopper, but even I've noticed some aggressive adds for "Black Friday" sales - Black Friday being the day after Thanksgiving which comes up this week. Of course, don't go by what I say here, since, as I say, I don't shop much and don't like to shop. But you may want to keep your eyes and ears open if you're in the market for Christmas gifts.
Interestingly, the growth in inventories, as recently reported here, can push up GDP numbers, since inventories as a component of how GDP is measured, but unless that increased supply of goods is met by an increased demand, it eventually translates into a slow down in manufacturing:
The rate of inventory accumulation in the face of tepid consumer spending suggests businesses will have little appetite to maintain the brisk pace in the fourth quarter, which economists expect to weigh on GDP growth.Makes sense, doesn't it? So unless there's strong demand, indeed increased strong demand, those aggressive Black Friday discounts may not be the last discounts we see this Christmas season. How this portends for the future is, of course, an open question. Does this signal a slowdown in buying on a broad basis, or just a temporary slowdown? If temporary, it still hits retailers at the time of year that they count on to make a good percentage of their annual profits.
And so the perverse ways of economic reporting and statistics throws us a bone to chew on: higher inventories increases GDP - for now. It then possibly leads to lower GDP shortly. One thing that this increased inventory report does say, though, is that strong ongoing economic growth has yet to be signalled, despite optimistic reports claiming that the economy is "gaining traction" now, five years after the 2008 debacle that began our ongoing crisis. We're in the woods, still seeking the pathway out.
But don't let all this dampen your Thanksgiving. Rather, focus, as will I, on your family, friends, and of course, the great feast I hope you enjoy in a couple of days. For those of you who have to travel, be alert to the nasty weather which started out west and is just now approaching my Northeast home base. That goes for our son who is flying today - at least we hope he'll be flying, and safely at that.
As for me, I'll be home, though not quite "off," as the cooking duties fall in my lap this year. But not to worry, as we're expecting "only" 8 or 9 people. Then again, if you enjoy cooking up a storm, as I do, the exertion provides its own rewards.
In any case, Happy Thanksgiving to all.
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