How Trump's "Vulgar and Obscene" Comments Could Impact the Markets
As another round of "Kill Trump" unfolds - this time over his "vulgar and obscene" comments about women - let's look at the effect this may have on markets.
To begin with, there's the matter of this causing Trump to lose the election. Some believe that's just what will happen. If he does lose, we've got some advice we can pass on. On the other hand, if rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated, the same advice applies. Just click HERE. Something more dramatic would have to occur to change this assessment.
Now you might think that major Republican leaders announcing they can no longer support Trump after hearing these terrible remarks could be considered dramatic. For example, there's this rather absurd headline on Bloomberg:
If you're wondering why we think it's absurd, maybe this excerpt best summarizes:
"The presidential election is over," said Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee and longtime critic of Trump. He said it’s time for Republicans to "confront our demons" and reflect on how they allowed Trump to become the party’s standard-bearer. "Donald Trump represents an indelible stain on the GOP's soul."
An "indelible stain on the GOP soul"? Really? The very idea that this (or the other) party has anything resembling a "soul" implies a history of principled and consistent stand (at least a recent one) on meaningful moral issues; that they typically do not, in fact, blow with the wind. Really? (We won't attempt to prove the point here; if you disagree - and have a modicum of reason, common sense, and a moral compass, would be open to your attempt to dispute.)
With all that as background, here's another view: It's a whole lot of nonsense. If you think those "taking a stand" against Trump do so based on either some principle, or based on the fact that they themselves would never behave in a manner indicated by those comments, you're living in a dream world. Politicians these days - especially those holding national office - are so soaked in power and the consequences of being so soaked, they likely express themselves in similar ways, if not in public comments, then in private activity. There are simply too many examples of this sort of power-driven depravity to think anything else. And at the crux of power-driven personal depravity you'll find an intimate connection between power and sex. That's just how it is.
Add to this the utter lack of any moral compass or political fortitude on the party level to take a stand that might result in the loss of a single vote, and we hope you see how the ginned up indignation over Trump's remarks is nothing more than a theatrical performance. It's emotional manipulation.
(Not saying the comments weren't offensive or anything, and not just if you're a woman. No man worth his manhood should speak that way or even think that way.)
Of course, there could be a possible effect on markets in the near-term. It would go like this:
Big traders believe that Trump's comments will destroy his candidacy and begin trading as if Hillary wins before she even wins. They'd basically be pulling forward whatever programmed trading they'd already prepared for after an election. So there's an impact on markets. (Stocks up? Stocks down? Bonds up? Bonds down? Don't really know.) In the end, though, this sort of effect passes and we're likely back where we started, at least until there's some clarity after the new President is sworn in as to what policies will be pushed when that person assumes office.
But aside from that possibility, it's likely best to ignore the whole mess. Forcing yourself to ignore emotional manipulation will serve you well in your both your investing discipline and your life in general. You can therefore use this particular anti-Trump chapter in the sad story of our current national election as a kind of emotional exercise device to toughen you up so you can learn to resist, and ultimately ignore, this sort of posturing. It's designed to curry favor, get or change your vote, and do so by pulling your strings, as if you were some sort of helpless puppet. Don't let this happen!
So whether or not markets are impacted really shouldn't concern us much. What should concern us, however, is whether anyone really take seriously politicians who would exploit Trump's admittedly vulgar and obscene comments for their own ends.
To begin with, there's the matter of this causing Trump to lose the election. Some believe that's just what will happen. If he does lose, we've got some advice we can pass on. On the other hand, if rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated, the same advice applies. Just click HERE. Something more dramatic would have to occur to change this assessment.
Now you might think that major Republican leaders announcing they can no longer support Trump after hearing these terrible remarks could be considered dramatic. For example, there's this rather absurd headline on Bloomberg:
Trump Video Demolishes GOP Unity as Party Fears Easy Clinton Win
If you're wondering why we think it's absurd, maybe this excerpt best summarizes:
"The presidential election is over," said Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee and longtime critic of Trump. He said it’s time for Republicans to "confront our demons" and reflect on how they allowed Trump to become the party’s standard-bearer. "Donald Trump represents an indelible stain on the GOP's soul."
An "indelible stain on the GOP soul"? Really? The very idea that this (or the other) party has anything resembling a "soul" implies a history of principled and consistent stand (at least a recent one) on meaningful moral issues; that they typically do not, in fact, blow with the wind. Really? (We won't attempt to prove the point here; if you disagree - and have a modicum of reason, common sense, and a moral compass, would be open to your attempt to dispute.)
With all that as background, here's another view: It's a whole lot of nonsense. If you think those "taking a stand" against Trump do so based on either some principle, or based on the fact that they themselves would never behave in a manner indicated by those comments, you're living in a dream world. Politicians these days - especially those holding national office - are so soaked in power and the consequences of being so soaked, they likely express themselves in similar ways, if not in public comments, then in private activity. There are simply too many examples of this sort of power-driven depravity to think anything else. And at the crux of power-driven personal depravity you'll find an intimate connection between power and sex. That's just how it is.
Add to this the utter lack of any moral compass or political fortitude on the party level to take a stand that might result in the loss of a single vote, and we hope you see how the ginned up indignation over Trump's remarks is nothing more than a theatrical performance. It's emotional manipulation.
(Not saying the comments weren't offensive or anything, and not just if you're a woman. No man worth his manhood should speak that way or even think that way.)
Of course, there could be a possible effect on markets in the near-term. It would go like this:
Big traders believe that Trump's comments will destroy his candidacy and begin trading as if Hillary wins before she even wins. They'd basically be pulling forward whatever programmed trading they'd already prepared for after an election. So there's an impact on markets. (Stocks up? Stocks down? Bonds up? Bonds down? Don't really know.) In the end, though, this sort of effect passes and we're likely back where we started, at least until there's some clarity after the new President is sworn in as to what policies will be pushed when that person assumes office.
But aside from that possibility, it's likely best to ignore the whole mess. Forcing yourself to ignore emotional manipulation will serve you well in your both your investing discipline and your life in general. You can therefore use this particular anti-Trump chapter in the sad story of our current national election as a kind of emotional exercise device to toughen you up so you can learn to resist, and ultimately ignore, this sort of posturing. It's designed to curry favor, get or change your vote, and do so by pulling your strings, as if you were some sort of helpless puppet. Don't let this happen!
So whether or not markets are impacted really shouldn't concern us much. What should concern us, however, is whether anyone really take seriously politicians who would exploit Trump's admittedly vulgar and obscene comments for their own ends.
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