Taking a Breather
It's been several weeks of lots of reading, thinking, analysis, taking action from time to time. Today, it's time for a bit of a breather. Too much intensity leads to burn out. Burn out means the bang for your buck you get from all your work slips below the profit line. You do lots and get little back for your effort.
Okay, point made.
So with deep breaths in and out, we calmly assess what's been swirling around us all - at least from this humble individual's point of view.
First, about media reports of either the Coronvirus or the markets: Been staying away from most of these. Besides what flies across my screen professionally, I get personal emails from sources known, unknown, from family and friends. For the stuff that packs my professional email, with few exceptions it gets deleted right away, although I might glance a headline or two. I find that in the vast majority of cases, you can ferret out what the various stories contain just from the headlines. Frankly, I'm not interested in some "experts" assessment of how the C-virus has impacted now and will impact markets in the future. What could they possibly know that we all don't know using our common sense? And in case you haven't figured it out yet, the virus was a trigger for a correction or collapse (take your pick) that was itching to be triggered.
Now that doesn't mean the virus wasn't a "Black Swan." I think even Taleb said it was - and he has typically pooh-poohed many claims of Black Swans in the past, based on his likely correct assumption that those making such claims either hadn't read his book or, if they did, didn't really comprehend what they were reading. But just because the virus is a Black Swan doesn't change what I said in the previous paragraph.
So think back on all the initial reporting of the stock markets stunning drop. All of it was attributed to the virus. Waste of time. No need to read or listen to such nonsense. Hence all the deleting.
I do prioritize the personal stuff though because I'm never sure if there's something pertaining to the individual in question, rather than just a general or generic passing of "information." Once I know the individual is safe and relatively sane, I don't always read the entire story they passed on because they think I'll find it helpful. So much of it falls into the camp of the professional stuff I get. Again, waste of time.
Now, don't think I'm saying I'm so smart I've got the handle on all this. I don't. I'm simply trying to stay disciplined and focused in a crazy world. And crazy it is.
The staying at home thing is crazy, but we're all doing it. Why? I think it's just being prudent. Then again, you'll find those who claim we're all sheep being manipulated by totalitarians who are using this trumped-up crisis (no pun intended) to "take over." Do you think that? I don't really. Although I won't be surprised if central governments don't use this to enhance their power and control over us. But I'm not thinking they've caused the pandemic, or are falsely exaggerating its danger to accomplish their evil ends. They're just doing what big (and even little) government always seeks to do: extend their power. It's been so since the first government was formed. It's what our Founding Fathers understood when they created our republican form of government. (NB: not democratic. They abhorred democracy for the most part.)
With that in mind, I've pretty much ignored all those who have claimed: the Democrats were behind ll this to unseat Trump; or the One-World Government proponents are colluding to destroy all self-governing nations' attempts to resist being taken over by a One-World elite; or those who've been constantly comparing the illnesses and deaths to flu - and a dozen other causes of death; or those who think the an evil elite has conspired to destroy our economy so they can end capitalism, free markets, etc; or those who believe that the closing of churches is part of a plan to get rid of God once and for all - or the myriad other theories that tell us we're all sheep being willingly led to the slaughter, some even spouting that we'd all gladly board trains headed for concentration camps if that order is given.
Folks, this only adds to the craziness that already exists. Do yourself a favor and push it out of sight.
Frankly, I've got enough to do to attend to my personal and professional obligations. Every day, I'm at work the same time as usual. When I knock off for the day, I'm perhaps a bit more fatigued than usual, but that's a function of the wild market swings that have caused me to bear down and make sure we're not missing any signals the market gives us that help us to attend to our risk management discipline. That and the challenges of shopping for food and other items to keep the home fires lit. It does take a bit more of toll than the average busy day at work.
So who has time or energy to indulge in all the extra-craziness being thrown at us in the mainstream media, alternative media, social media, along with our professional/business sources, our concerned family and friends, etc., etc., etc.?
Where will all this take us? I don't know. I'm taking it day to day.
And, by the way, if any one of these theories do pan out, what difference would it have made if you spent all your time fretting about it before it happens? Are you going to be the one who ignores the social distancing, stops washing your hands, pooh-poohs wearing masks? What's that gonna do for ya?
Hey, if today's breather results in any profound insights into all this, I'll be sure to post it at some point. For now, though, I'm going to continue breathing in and out - calmly.
Okay, point made.
So with deep breaths in and out, we calmly assess what's been swirling around us all - at least from this humble individual's point of view.
First, about media reports of either the Coronvirus or the markets: Been staying away from most of these. Besides what flies across my screen professionally, I get personal emails from sources known, unknown, from family and friends. For the stuff that packs my professional email, with few exceptions it gets deleted right away, although I might glance a headline or two. I find that in the vast majority of cases, you can ferret out what the various stories contain just from the headlines. Frankly, I'm not interested in some "experts" assessment of how the C-virus has impacted now and will impact markets in the future. What could they possibly know that we all don't know using our common sense? And in case you haven't figured it out yet, the virus was a trigger for a correction or collapse (take your pick) that was itching to be triggered.
Now that doesn't mean the virus wasn't a "Black Swan." I think even Taleb said it was - and he has typically pooh-poohed many claims of Black Swans in the past, based on his likely correct assumption that those making such claims either hadn't read his book or, if they did, didn't really comprehend what they were reading. But just because the virus is a Black Swan doesn't change what I said in the previous paragraph.
So think back on all the initial reporting of the stock markets stunning drop. All of it was attributed to the virus. Waste of time. No need to read or listen to such nonsense. Hence all the deleting.
I do prioritize the personal stuff though because I'm never sure if there's something pertaining to the individual in question, rather than just a general or generic passing of "information." Once I know the individual is safe and relatively sane, I don't always read the entire story they passed on because they think I'll find it helpful. So much of it falls into the camp of the professional stuff I get. Again, waste of time.
Now, don't think I'm saying I'm so smart I've got the handle on all this. I don't. I'm simply trying to stay disciplined and focused in a crazy world. And crazy it is.
The staying at home thing is crazy, but we're all doing it. Why? I think it's just being prudent. Then again, you'll find those who claim we're all sheep being manipulated by totalitarians who are using this trumped-up crisis (no pun intended) to "take over." Do you think that? I don't really. Although I won't be surprised if central governments don't use this to enhance their power and control over us. But I'm not thinking they've caused the pandemic, or are falsely exaggerating its danger to accomplish their evil ends. They're just doing what big (and even little) government always seeks to do: extend their power. It's been so since the first government was formed. It's what our Founding Fathers understood when they created our republican form of government. (NB: not democratic. They abhorred democracy for the most part.)
With that in mind, I've pretty much ignored all those who have claimed: the Democrats were behind ll this to unseat Trump; or the One-World Government proponents are colluding to destroy all self-governing nations' attempts to resist being taken over by a One-World elite; or those who've been constantly comparing the illnesses and deaths to flu - and a dozen other causes of death; or those who think the an evil elite has conspired to destroy our economy so they can end capitalism, free markets, etc; or those who believe that the closing of churches is part of a plan to get rid of God once and for all - or the myriad other theories that tell us we're all sheep being willingly led to the slaughter, some even spouting that we'd all gladly board trains headed for concentration camps if that order is given.
Folks, this only adds to the craziness that already exists. Do yourself a favor and push it out of sight.
Frankly, I've got enough to do to attend to my personal and professional obligations. Every day, I'm at work the same time as usual. When I knock off for the day, I'm perhaps a bit more fatigued than usual, but that's a function of the wild market swings that have caused me to bear down and make sure we're not missing any signals the market gives us that help us to attend to our risk management discipline. That and the challenges of shopping for food and other items to keep the home fires lit. It does take a bit more of toll than the average busy day at work.
So who has time or energy to indulge in all the extra-craziness being thrown at us in the mainstream media, alternative media, social media, along with our professional/business sources, our concerned family and friends, etc., etc., etc.?
Where will all this take us? I don't know. I'm taking it day to day.
And, by the way, if any one of these theories do pan out, what difference would it have made if you spent all your time fretting about it before it happens? Are you going to be the one who ignores the social distancing, stops washing your hands, pooh-poohs wearing masks? What's that gonna do for ya?
Hey, if today's breather results in any profound insights into all this, I'll be sure to post it at some point. For now, though, I'm going to continue breathing in and out - calmly.
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