Yesterday and Today in C-virus World
We got a day out yesterday. Temps were mild - a change in the pattern here in the Northeast. We've been below average for a quite a stretch. Even though we were still below average, it was mild enough to spend time in the yard.
The yard isn't big, but it's a yard. You can hang out, take in the air and the sun. We horsed around a bit, hitting a tennis ball back and forth (gently) over the BBQ. (It was a faux net.) We lost a few balls in neighbors yards. One later tossed 4 back. The other still has 4. They're not super-friendly and I don't know if we'll see those 4 again. Although I seriously doubt they'll get any use out of them. Neither the woman nor the man living there appear to have done a stitch of exercise in recent memory.
Meanwhile, the time indoors involved reading a few more articles by Daniel Amerman. You can look him up. He's been putting out a whole series of pieces to promote his upcoming book, along with some DVDs he sells. He's a CFA, and does seem pretty sharp. I mention his stuff because it reinforces those ''sobering thoughts" from a few days ago. I think he tries to cover his bases, but he doesn't pull any punches - meaning he doesn't insist that what's coming will be awful; but he does bring up what awful might mean if it comes.
But don't get nervous. He's clear that the world won't end. On the other hand, he is convinced that the economy and investment markets we've known since World War II (I think) have irrevocably changed in 2020. Yeah, this year - starting with the C-virus - we're in a new world that's not going back to the old one.
Oh, and he's in the camp of those who see what's happening now as something that was due to happen, even if COVID-19 didn't swoop down on us. It just triggered the inevitable, and maybe accelerated its progress.
His sobering stuff focuses on those who are or will soon be retired as well as those now working - or at least are working age. The retirees need to revisit all the assumptions their adviser's - or they themselves - have likely used to project into the future. And it's not just investment results he's talking about. It's everything: house values, rents, food, medical care, and so forth. The simplest iteration would be inflation. If we get that in spades, he's shows (in his most recent piece) how it masks investment results, using the years 1968 - 1980 (or is it 1982?). The market was volatile, but recovered, and wound up higher. Except that, when you factor in inflation, it was "really" lower - a lot lower. The dollar value of your investments bought maybe 40% of what it would have bought a decade before.
But that was all from yesterday. Today it's gonna rain again. I say again 'cause we've had not only chilly weather, but lots of rain. And when it doesn't rain, there've been lots of cloudy days thrown in as well. You noticed all this yesterday in the yard. We horsed around on the lawn, and it was quite muddy. I had to hose down my shoes before coming inside.
Pretty dreary, eh? On the other hand, being semi-isolated has a good side when it comes to dreary weather. There's not too many places to go anyway so being inside ain't all that hard to take as when it's a sunny day. Besides, an occasional rainy Sunday, where you don't go anywhere and pretty much just rest up can be welcome under any circumstances.
And that's what we'll do in our little casa: rest. Be with each other. Cook up some fine meals. Enjoy good food and drink.
As for the markets and the economy, well, nothing much has changed. Hairy and scary sums it up, don't you think?
The yard isn't big, but it's a yard. You can hang out, take in the air and the sun. We horsed around a bit, hitting a tennis ball back and forth (gently) over the BBQ. (It was a faux net.) We lost a few balls in neighbors yards. One later tossed 4 back. The other still has 4. They're not super-friendly and I don't know if we'll see those 4 again. Although I seriously doubt they'll get any use out of them. Neither the woman nor the man living there appear to have done a stitch of exercise in recent memory.
Meanwhile, the time indoors involved reading a few more articles by Daniel Amerman. You can look him up. He's been putting out a whole series of pieces to promote his upcoming book, along with some DVDs he sells. He's a CFA, and does seem pretty sharp. I mention his stuff because it reinforces those ''sobering thoughts" from a few days ago. I think he tries to cover his bases, but he doesn't pull any punches - meaning he doesn't insist that what's coming will be awful; but he does bring up what awful might mean if it comes.
But don't get nervous. He's clear that the world won't end. On the other hand, he is convinced that the economy and investment markets we've known since World War II (I think) have irrevocably changed in 2020. Yeah, this year - starting with the C-virus - we're in a new world that's not going back to the old one.
Oh, and he's in the camp of those who see what's happening now as something that was due to happen, even if COVID-19 didn't swoop down on us. It just triggered the inevitable, and maybe accelerated its progress.
His sobering stuff focuses on those who are or will soon be retired as well as those now working - or at least are working age. The retirees need to revisit all the assumptions their adviser's - or they themselves - have likely used to project into the future. And it's not just investment results he's talking about. It's everything: house values, rents, food, medical care, and so forth. The simplest iteration would be inflation. If we get that in spades, he's shows (in his most recent piece) how it masks investment results, using the years 1968 - 1980 (or is it 1982?). The market was volatile, but recovered, and wound up higher. Except that, when you factor in inflation, it was "really" lower - a lot lower. The dollar value of your investments bought maybe 40% of what it would have bought a decade before.
But that was all from yesterday. Today it's gonna rain again. I say again 'cause we've had not only chilly weather, but lots of rain. And when it doesn't rain, there've been lots of cloudy days thrown in as well. You noticed all this yesterday in the yard. We horsed around on the lawn, and it was quite muddy. I had to hose down my shoes before coming inside.
Pretty dreary, eh? On the other hand, being semi-isolated has a good side when it comes to dreary weather. There's not too many places to go anyway so being inside ain't all that hard to take as when it's a sunny day. Besides, an occasional rainy Sunday, where you don't go anywhere and pretty much just rest up can be welcome under any circumstances.
And that's what we'll do in our little casa: rest. Be with each other. Cook up some fine meals. Enjoy good food and drink.
As for the markets and the economy, well, nothing much has changed. Hairy and scary sums it up, don't you think?
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