Are We In The Fourth Turning?
The Fourth Turning was written over two decades ago, in 1997, by William Strauss and Neil Howe. The authors interpret all of history from the lense of four cycles. The fourth cycle, a/k/a "The Fourth Turning" comes great drama and strife.
Strauss has died, but Howe is still alive. Interviewed recently, he thought we were likely now in this Fourth Turning. Having read the book shortly after its publication, I've always had this period in mind since. Based on the length of past cycles, I wondered if this Fourth Turning would come sometime around 2010 - 2020. Howe seems to confirm what I've been anticipating.
The book is still in print. It's well-written. I found it fascinating. To see cycles in the past isn't much of a stretch. Some believe the cycles they see in the past can help predict the future. Ray Dalio, for instance, has written much about the cycles he has identified looking at history. His view, based on his understanding of those cycles, is that we're in a period similar to the 1930s. While no cycle is thought to bring the exact specific events of the last, we can usually see strong similarities. In this case, the similarities would be hard economic times, social unrest, war. You can find Dalio writings for free. He's been very generous with his thoughts and the research behind them.
As for The Fourth Turning, if it's here, it allows for the sort of picture Dalio paints of a period similar to the 1930s.
Another proponent of cycles, Charles Nenner, believes in cycles of social unrest. They come every 60 years or so. The last cycle was the 1960s - 1970s. Remember those times? Are we returning to something akin now? It's worth considering.
I had a conversation with a colleague who lives in New York. The subject was the COVID lockdown. It's supposedly loosening up now. Monday we go into what our Governor and Mayor have labeled "Phase 2." My colleague recently took a subway from his home in Brooklyn to his office in Manhattan. When the lock-down was firmly in place, he took a couple of similar trips. He said nothing has changed despite the "Phase 1" initial loosening. Getting out of the subway at Grand Central, the street reminded him of a Sunday morning at 8 AM: virtually deserted, hardly any cars or busses. We'll see what happens when Phase 2 arrives.
I brought up the 1960s-1970s, the Fourth Turning, and Dalio's writing. My colleague believes New York will return to what it was like before the lockdown. I suggested it might take a while, with the possible intervening period of social unrest, increased crime, economic hard times. He listened respectfully, but has a sunnier outlook.
Who really knows? I certainly have not hard conviction. But I'm not counting out a less than sunny future for us here in New York, and possibly many other parts of the country. We'll all have to wait and see.
Just remember that however things unfold as the lock-downs loosen, it will take time before the trend manifests itself. The media has focused on two things only at this point: spikes of COVID counter-balanced by upbeat reports of re-openings. Maybe their hedging their bets until the picture becomes clearer. Or maybe they're just pandering to their readers so they can get more ads and clicks when they put out their stories.
In our last post, I recommended some music to sooth the soul, whether anxious or weary. If you didn't see it, do take a look. If you have any appreciation for that sort of music, it's worth pursuing. By way of contrast, here's something I've always considered the "anthem" of those troubled times of the 1960s-1970s. It captures a feeling most of us likely have either forgotten or with which we are simply unfamiliar. Rest assured, you'll know that feeling again if the Fourth Turning has its way.
Strauss has died, but Howe is still alive. Interviewed recently, he thought we were likely now in this Fourth Turning. Having read the book shortly after its publication, I've always had this period in mind since. Based on the length of past cycles, I wondered if this Fourth Turning would come sometime around 2010 - 2020. Howe seems to confirm what I've been anticipating.
The book is still in print. It's well-written. I found it fascinating. To see cycles in the past isn't much of a stretch. Some believe the cycles they see in the past can help predict the future. Ray Dalio, for instance, has written much about the cycles he has identified looking at history. His view, based on his understanding of those cycles, is that we're in a period similar to the 1930s. While no cycle is thought to bring the exact specific events of the last, we can usually see strong similarities. In this case, the similarities would be hard economic times, social unrest, war. You can find Dalio writings for free. He's been very generous with his thoughts and the research behind them.
As for The Fourth Turning, if it's here, it allows for the sort of picture Dalio paints of a period similar to the 1930s.
Another proponent of cycles, Charles Nenner, believes in cycles of social unrest. They come every 60 years or so. The last cycle was the 1960s - 1970s. Remember those times? Are we returning to something akin now? It's worth considering.
I had a conversation with a colleague who lives in New York. The subject was the COVID lockdown. It's supposedly loosening up now. Monday we go into what our Governor and Mayor have labeled "Phase 2." My colleague recently took a subway from his home in Brooklyn to his office in Manhattan. When the lock-down was firmly in place, he took a couple of similar trips. He said nothing has changed despite the "Phase 1" initial loosening. Getting out of the subway at Grand Central, the street reminded him of a Sunday morning at 8 AM: virtually deserted, hardly any cars or busses. We'll see what happens when Phase 2 arrives.
I brought up the 1960s-1970s, the Fourth Turning, and Dalio's writing. My colleague believes New York will return to what it was like before the lockdown. I suggested it might take a while, with the possible intervening period of social unrest, increased crime, economic hard times. He listened respectfully, but has a sunnier outlook.
Who really knows? I certainly have not hard conviction. But I'm not counting out a less than sunny future for us here in New York, and possibly many other parts of the country. We'll all have to wait and see.
Just remember that however things unfold as the lock-downs loosen, it will take time before the trend manifests itself. The media has focused on two things only at this point: spikes of COVID counter-balanced by upbeat reports of re-openings. Maybe their hedging their bets until the picture becomes clearer. Or maybe they're just pandering to their readers so they can get more ads and clicks when they put out their stories.
In our last post, I recommended some music to sooth the soul, whether anxious or weary. If you didn't see it, do take a look. If you have any appreciation for that sort of music, it's worth pursuing. By way of contrast, here's something I've always considered the "anthem" of those troubled times of the 1960s-1970s. It captures a feeling most of us likely have either forgotten or with which we are simply unfamiliar. Rest assured, you'll know that feeling again if the Fourth Turning has its way.
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