The MAGA March and What We Might Expect

We're expecting a slug of nasty weather this afternoon. Right now it's partially sunny, calm winds, dry. But the forecast calls for rain with moderate winds later. Doesn't sound too bad. But one forecast mentioned the possibility of increasing winds, possible hitting 50 mph+ after the sun goes down. If that occurs, we're in that zone where tree coming down along with power outages take center stage. We'll prepare as best we can for whatever actually happens.

That "prepare as best we can for whatever actually happens" approach may prove helpful in the coming weeks. Whatever side you take re who won the Presidential election, remember that there re indeed two sides. And, right now, they're about as far from each other as I've ever seen, even after Trump's 2016 win. If it keeps up like this, we may be in for a heap of trouble. 

Yesterday gathering of Trump supporters in Washington D.C. and other places elicited some confrontations with opposition demonstrators, but - far as I can tell from media reports - nothing terrible. Can the "nothing terrible" hold as the election challenges continue in coming week? And when these result in a final certification of election results either by the Electoral College, the Congress, or - I think this is one possibility - the Supreme Court, what happens then.

The point of all this is that we've got a long road ahead of us. Things aren't resolved or settled yet. In fact, even once results are declared to be "official" don't count on resolution or a settled condition then. 

It's just how things are in our country. Civil war? Could be. Some say it's already started. 

Oh, and let's not forget all this is happening with an "overlay" or reported COVID spikes, possibly causing those dreaded lockdowns in some parts of the country. In the New York Metro area, we've already got a 10 PM curfew on bars and restaurants, along with a projection that, given the current rate of cases (whatever that actually means), the public schools may switch of in person teaching and go to remote learning, with kids staying home.

Lest we latch on to the talk of vaccines comin' soon, consider: The Pfizer vaccine that got all the publicity and sent the stock market soaring to the stars seems unlikely - at this point - to be distributed to much of the population any time soon. You can look up the problems with storage, transportation, and distribution, based on extreme requirements for freezing the stuff. Right now, it sure doesn't seem promising.

And lest we've lost track of it, the economy isn't doing all that well to boot. Wall Street - for the most part - has touted a lot of "positive" numbers, projecting these into happy trends that include a stock market boom and a swift economic recovery. Selective data and anecdotes can do that pretty easily, especially when it comes to Wall Street economists and analysts. No matter, it's likely a view we may want to discount, if not altogether ignore.

Not saying things look dire. But we've still got some hurdles to jump: less, but still big unemployment; growing bankruptcies of businesses of all sizes; as many as 25% small businesses closing for good (a stat I read somewhere, but not sure how accurate it is); bond defaults (growing but not reflecting the underlying reality of business bankruptcies and/or inadequate cash flow to meet interest payment obligations); potential evictions of residential tenants who haven't been paying rents; same with commercial tenants; mortgage defaults. 

None of these has yet had the potential impact they might have due to various relief programs intended to delay their effects. For example, mortgages. The relief provided by various banks who offer "loan forbearance" that allows deferral of mortgage payments has forestalled foreclosures. How long with that last when forbearance ends and banks expect payments to resume?

All in all, we'd all do well to keep our eyes and ears open. Avoid overly optimistic pronouncements. Continue to take prudent measures to prepare for at least a temporary rough patch to include: social unrest, violent confrontations, economic hardship, even food shortages if things get really out of hand. 

Stay vigilant. Expecting the worst never disappoints, even if things turn out relatively OK. It's when you expect the best and let down your guard that you can get yourself into trouble.