A Halloween Thought About the Past Week

 

The past week saw more records in stock indices. So what's new? 

Sure, there was some wobbling in September. And some thought October would follow suit, it being a typically troublesome month for stocks. Didn't happen. The S&P was up 5%+, hitting new all-time highs. Even the Dow Transports came to life. A little more lift and they'll hit new high - something the Dow Industrials have already accomplished - thereby establishing a classic Dow Theory confirmation of an ongoing Bull Market.

Heck, maybe stocks will just keep rising. Maybe they'll never correct more than a few points here and there. Maybe we've arrived at Golconda, the Promised Land. Can the Rapture be far in the future?

Or maybe it's a set up. Maybe stocks have donned some attention-diverting costume to make us think we're on the cusp of the Market that never falls. It is Halloween after all.

Yes, Halloween arrives again. Last year it was somewhat subdues in our neighborhood, what with the ongoing concern over COVID. This year it feels a bit more robust. We should see more kids, more costumes, more Trick or Treating.

I enjoyed Halloween as a kid. We lived in an apartment complex. We could hit a lot of doors in a compressed time frame: lots of treats in a flash. Back home to the family and our first indulgence of our stash. (Chuck the candy corn. Do people still give that stuff?)

When we had our kids, I took them around the neighborhood in their costumes. The really ugly scary stuff had become more common (unlike when I was a kid). So my wife made various costumes that were fun and not gross - things like kings, bishops, knights; no blood and guts.

At the time, we saw the first push for adults to dress up - something that didn't happen growing up. (I can't imagine Mom and Dad in Halloween get-ups!) So you do see some parents dressed up along with the kids, something neither my wife nor I ever did.

Anyway, however you dress, whatever your Halloween observances, here's something to remember: Halloween is "All Hallows Eve." That's where the name comes from. And All Hallows is another way to say All Saints Day. Tomorrow, November 1st, is All Saints Day. Halloween is the eve of All Saints Day.

So it's got nothing to do with the NYC Greenwich Village parade, nothing to do with evil, witches, and all that. Skeletons are another matter. All Hallows Eve recalls the dead - but not in a morbid or "scary" way. It simply recalls that people have died, some of whom we know. 

Indeed, after All Saints Day comes All Souls Day. After we celebrate All Saints - those who've received their heavenly reward - we turn to those waiting their turn. You see, when we die, our bodies and souls bid each other farewell - at least for a time. And those souls who have managed to keep themselves pure, holy, go straight to Heaven. But for those who've had dings and burrs that need repair and smoothing, it's Purgatory - a place of cleansing and purification. Those are the souls we honor on All Souls.

(There is a third alternative - Hell - but we'll set it aside for now.)

Of course, none of this needs to take away from the Trick or Treating - especially for the kids out there. (And, frankly, they're the ones who should be taking center stage, not parents who like to play dress up.) And, as if you needed reminding, those costumes are pretend. The folks under them aren't what the costumes present.

And maybe that's a good reminder for the stock market. Maybe it's dressed up - just for fun. We're not seeing what's under the costume of all-time highs that come with valuations exceeding those before the 1929 Crash, almost as high as the tech-wreck Bear Market of 2000-2002. 

Just give is some consideration before you increase your stock allocation.

In any event, have a Happy Halloween!