Mixed Signals in More Ways Than One

We've been getting mixed signals from our various sources - in more ways than one. 

First of all, we're finding mixed signals in the markets. Stock, for instance, have given both "bear" and "one more rush to the stars" signals. We monitor things like fundamentals, ratios, charts, etc. Things go one way or the other.

We'd love to have everything agree, but, frankly, we can't think of a time when everything - as in EVERYTHING - lined up. But what's been a bit discombobulating this go-round has been signals that persist in one direction, then turn around. What's up with that. 

For example, the Dow Transports have been diverging from the Dow Industrials for months. And it's not unusual for the Transports, when they persist in contradicting the Industrials, to be marked as a leader in whatever direction they're pointing. Recently that's been BEAR.

Last week, however, the Transports seemed - seemed - to maybe - maybe - be changing their tune. We'll have to see if that persists. If it does, then the Transports may now be saying: "Hold on a minute. This BULL hath not yet expired." (The Transports sometimes speak in a kind of Old English style. Don't ask.)

A similar situation applies to the Small Caps. These were basically meandering below their high for months and months, contradicting the forceful rise of the S&P and the Industrials. Such divergence raises a red flag. But just recently they've perked up a bit, although not quite enough to signal a change of sentiment. We'll be watching carefully.

As for our Brain Trust, there we've gotten mostly "Be cautious!" That means don't add to positions in stocks. Maybe hold what you have, but be ready to abandon ship any moment now.

There's more, but we'll not bother you with the details. Just know that it's been a bit frustrating seeking some sense of certainty. Then again, if it's certainty we seek, we typically won't find it in markets. They eschew certainty. They love to create chaos and anxiety. That's just how they are.

So much for markets. Next we'll cite some mixed signals in the world created by the C-Virus Mess that began in Q1 2020. (It's still a mess, in case you haven't noticed.)

We who reside E-C-U (East Coast Urban), more specifically the New York Metro area, have issues with R-O-T-W (Rest of the World). Of course, that's not unusual. New Yorkers - God bless 'em, one and all - consider themselves superior to others (although they wouldn't admit to it) typically buy the mandate/mask/passport regime. They think those who don't are...well, I'm not sure what they think of such Neanderthals. 

Quick example: A client recently decided to take a weekend in parts non-New York, as in Charleston, SC. They had a pleasant time. But they did note that no one - as in NO ONE - was masked. How could this be? Oh, right. They're Southerners. And, right, wasn't Charleston a major port where slaves were brought in and sold? Anyway, they were practically mortified.

So what's the point? The point is that in our neck of the woods, there's a strong contingent of those who "follow the science" - at least "the science" as they understand it. (?) With that view, others who don't agree with their understanding of the "the science" are, well, a problem. Of course, it never occurs to such folks that their understanding of "the science" may not be all that scientific - at least as the term "scientific: was once universally understood.

Back to mixed signals. In the C-Virus Mess world that God's Will has permitted, we've got a contingent that accepts the pronouncements of governments which claim everyone must be "vaccinated." Another contingent doesn't accept such a pronouncement. And that contingent appears to be rising up and expressing themselves rather vociferously. A simple monitoring of N-U-M-S (non-US-Media Sources) has revealed more and larger public gatherings (protests?) of folks who've had it with their governments' demanding they be injected or else. 

Such mixed signals may be indicating a significant shift in public sentiment, at least a significant shift in the public demonstration of that public sentiment.

And that was just last week. We'll be watching what's coming with interest - to say the least.