Little Stirrings

We've seen some stirring, little stirrings, in the markets as well as in our world. These seem to have crystallized somewhat over recent weeks.

Lest you think we mean that the recent uptick in stock prices would be one of these, well, it's doubtful. A Bear Market yields corrections whose purpose is to deceive. Yes, some sources have been braying that a new bull is underway, that the Bear indeed bottomed in June. But that's part of the deception. It goes on over and over in every Bear Market. The corrections yield the faux bull.

Not sure about this? No problem. We all have a right to our own opinion. Mine is fallible like yours. But if you're convinced it's time to buy more stocks, go ahead. We all must live with the consequences of our decisions. 

In fact, we did buy a stock position this week: XLE. After it's recent rise and steep correction, we just thought it was a good addition to help bolster our sagging portfolios. If we're wrong, we'll keep a tight stop under it. If we're right, we may get some relief from recent dips in value, along with...

...an additional position in long bonds. And that's due to some stirring in bonds recently. Following the reasonably good advice of one our Brain Trust members, we've held our long bond position, albeit through a brutal period that dragged on our portfolios. Frankly, we could have sold a long time ago to stem the bleeding and now bought back. But selling with the intention of buying back when a market turns around is a relatively delicate and nuanced process that we've never been particularly good at. So we held. And now we add. If XLE turns up (we're down 4% since buying) and our Brain Trust source is correct - that bonds have reversed their recent long trip down the mountain - we'll get that bump we'd like.

Stirrings too in the Precious Metals arena, with silver making the boldest statement. For us, holding the positions we've held, it hasn't been a stirring of such intensity that we're prepared to add at this point. But perhaps that which we've held all along will gather some strength and those red minuses become less red or - can we imagine it? - turn green in the not too distant future.

Our resource/commodity positions remain a real mixed bag. The recent correction seems to have calmed down. Can't say we're seeing stirrings of renewed vigor. But at least the downdraft appears contained - for now.

The pot of the wide world out there seems to be stirred up it as well. Let's stick with two areas that do seem to be perking up.

Social unrest has sprung up in various places around the world. Chinese citizens have apparently refused to pay their mortgages in some areas, as well as staging some dramatic protests outside of banks which have refused to allow them access to their money. In the UK, common folk, now more palpably suffering from inflation, have announced some sort of strike that would include not paying their housing cost obligations (rent/mortgage). While the Chinese thing really is more than a stirring, the UK thing has started stirring, but appears to be picking up steam fairly quickly.

Have we here in the U.S. seen any similar stirrings? Perhaps the area most qualified would be the pro and anti abortion divide. With the overturning of Roe v Wade, various state legislatures have introduced bills to either ban or allow abortions on a regular basis. And some of these have passed, thereby becoming law. While it may seem a bit too obvious or simple to compare this to states declaring for or against slavery in the years leading up to the Civil War, one does read that this is the stuff of a new civil war. 

While this alone might not do the trick, we here in the U.S. have watched as our society has both shredded itself and divided into what seem to be two basic camps. What do we call them? Liberal vs. Conservative? Capitalist vs. Marxist? Blue vs. Red? You've seen all this and more in recent years. As for the shredding, it's been going on for decades perhaps picking up steam recently with the whole woke-LGBTQ (Did I miss a letter?) wave that's now pervasive in our public and educational (public and private) institutions. I'm not sure what to call those who oppose this wave, but you know who you are.

Will such stirrings percolate into something more powerful and potentially lethal? We'll see. But let's recall that the coming decade, according to many of those who make a habit or profession of studying historical cycles (or at least the ones with which I'm familiar), we're in for an extended era of social disruption, economic deterioration, accompanied by a continuing cultural collapse. 

Now none of this is claimed to inevitably result in a permanent state. "Cycles" implies ups and downs, not terminal states; more like waves So after what appears to be an unsavory and unhappy period, something better (let's hope) remains over the horizon. If it does, all we have to do is hang on through the coming years.

Easier said than done.

In any case, let's keep our eyes on this palette of stirrings and see what sort of image or picture emerges. 

Can anyone say, "Be prepared"?