Happy New Year?

Happy New Year?

Question mark?

OK, let's dispense with the suspense. The New Year of 2024 may mark a significant change to the familiar world that's surrounded us for, well, a long time. Whether that change is good or bad will be up to you. Hence the question mark.

Well, you can have mixed feelings too, of course.

To frame the question and possible answers, we recently read something that seemed to sport some degree of substance. The author ain't sanguine about prospects for peace and prosperity in the near or somewhat extended future. 

To be fair, peace and prosperity weren't all that ubiquitous in recent decades. But what makes the article interesting is the way the author focuses on war. Wars have certainly been part of what some called a "Pax Americana" after the fall of the Soviet Union. But the nature of such wars - according to author - has changed. Starting with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and extending now to the Israel-Hamas war, we may be entering some sort of era of wars that don't flair up and end , at worse, drag on in what is - for us Americans - some remote part of the world for years.

We bring all this up because a change such as the author asserts has happened will affect our investments in ways we may want to think about. And it will affect our lives in general, from our standard of living to our daily emotional equilibrium (assuming we've got some degree of this!).

Here as some choice quotes, starting with this attention-graber:

The Israel-Hamas war is an ominous message to the world: The guardrails that long stopped wars from breaking out are now effectively failing.

And lest we let our guard down and consider the two previously mentioned wars as somehow isolated, there's this:

...there’s also the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh; soldiers at heightened readiness on the border between Serbia and Kosovo; military coups spreading throughout Africa from Gabon to Niger; and frequent clashes between India and China. Then, alongside all this, there’s the potential for the current Hamas war to spread across the region.

Here's what's percolating as a result of these wars:

...it represents global “structural change,” which will affect everything from connectivity to technology and sustainability.

For us in the West, there's this:

...as this new era of war unfolds, the world will start to view the West differently — especially the U.S. As more conflicts erupt, many nations may begin questioning whether the Western camp is losing its power to call the shots and steer the world. And if the threat of Western sanctions is no longer paralyzing to nations, it will likely cause countries to start managing wars in their own unique ways.

As for the authors views on the import of all this, consider:

For anybody who truly wants to see, the writing is on the wall. The next decade or so could be filled with more fighting and upheaval than the world has seen in almost a century. And the barriers that stopped wars from breaking out in the past — from Western sanctions to citizen uprisings — have all eroded severely.

The author brings up other long-term trends that could blend with this new development in war. Anyone who has been paying attention to the world outside their window should not be surprised at these.

(Click HERE to read the whole article.)

Now, whether the author is 100% in either his assessment of these developments, or whether his brief proposed suggestion on addressing these really makes sense is beside the point. We simply found the thinking here deeper than than that which typically crosses our desk. It's worth reading the whole article and taking a few moments to think about what's being presented.

Of course, if your whole existence revolves around sports, entertainment, and the plentiful assortment of distractions and dysfunction served up by the world, the flesh, and the devil, you can rest easy. Just go about your life as if reality were none of your concern. And by reality, we mean real reality. Not the reality served up by reality shows. 

Not that I'm wringing my hands and waking up in a cold sweat at night over any of this. Seen through the prism of my Catholic Faith, things have a way of settling into some sort of order that can be perceived, interpreted, and somehow managed - with help of God's grace (BIG TIME). 

With all that thrown into the witches brew that seems to be boiling ever hotter in our time, there's still time to take a deep breath and wish you all a 

Happy New Year!

...without the question mark.