The Big News From The Fed This Week

Big news from the Fed. Fed Chairman Powell made some Fed-speak this week. It sounded like he was saying that it's a good bet that the Fed will cut their Fed Funds rate 3 times in 2024 (aka a "Fed Pivot"). At least that's how the stock market took it.

Oh, wait. Actually every market took it that way. The reaction was across the board. It was a "Happy Days Are Here Again" moment.

Of course, as days go by, the initial jolt will settle down a bit (or a lot). The various financial markets will digest and spew forth a more considered opinion. What that might be who knows.

For now, the ever-reliable (ahem), objective (ahem) financial media is doing some spewing of their own. A client contacted us with a link to a Bloomberg article about the ETF QQQ. It seems buying QQQ is the smart person's way to "play" this purported Fed Pivot. And we all want to be allied with the smart ones, right?

So was that the big news?

Before we get to that, here's a reminder: Hanukkah ended on Thursday. The 8 days flew by. I hope all our Jewish friends were able to grab them while they were available.

Growing up, we had many Jewish neighbors. We lived in an apartment building. So we had lots of neighbors, period. And it was a time when folks didn't ignore each other. Neighbors would ring our bell and, well, talk to my Mom or Dad. During the day, it was typically my Mom. Later on, from time to time, it was Dad. Of those memorable neighbors, a good percent were Jewish.

So growing up - as noted in our last post - we shared, in varying degrees, our distinctive holidays. Okay, so for the Jewish holidays it didn't include stuff like Purim. Then again, we didn't share Holy Days like the Feast of the Immaculate Conception, or the Assumption, or the Ascension...etc. But the more popular/major ones were there for the sharing.

Oh, and let's not forget:Hanukkah arrived early this year - early compared to Christmas. So that means that Christmas remains days into the future compared to Hanukkah. 

Now you may think that this matters only to Christians. But you'd probably be (at least mostly) wrong. Back in the day, and now (one assumes), many Jewish folks in their own way keep Christmas. This was certainly true for many of our Jewish friends and neighbors growing up. 

Now, to be clear, Jews having Christmas trees was a rarer phenomenon that it apparently is now. Nevertheless, there was some spillover of Christmas into our Jewish friends' lives.

Frankly all this is bigger news than the big news from the Fed this week. But since we led with this, here's the real big news. And it's not the notorious Fed Pivot.

What's really big - at least in the mind of this humble financial professional - is this: When the Fed cuts rates, the stock market tanks. Other markets also respond to this Fed Pivot thing. But for now, since most folks only focus on stocks, we'll leave it at that.

Enough said. We'll see what unfolds. And, quite frankly, if that doesn't happen this go-round, we won't be shocked. Surprised, but not shocked.

Why not shocked, given that historically that's how things unfold? Well, maybe it's because we've never experienced the heavy-duty manipulation that the Fed has poured over our heads in our time.

Anyway, we really are getting closer and closer to Christmas. So let's get our priorities straight and settle into the anticipation of joy that comes with commemoration of the birth of Jesus Christ.