Stocks and "Migrant's" Combo

With new all-time highs on the S&P it's time to go all in with stocks - right?

Well, that seems to be the consensus coming from the talking heads of our illustrious financial media.

Then there's the AAII Investor survey that screams "Bullish"!

So we've got data (all-time highs) and emotions (Bullish!) combining into an irresistible wave of emotion purportedly backed by hard evidence to push us into buying stocks and, of course, holding for the long run.

To switch horses for a moment, the wave of people crossing our southern borders are seeking a better life. Must be, right? Isn't that what immigrants do? And aren't they the backbone of our country, after all? 

The illustrious governor of New York just slapped back at the police commissioner of New York City who described a "wave of migrant crime" washing over the city. Why? Well, there's been a wave of crime. But wait! Most migrants are here to find a better life saith the governor. It's only a minority that have committed these crimes. 

So who's right?

Why don't we leave it there, for both stocks and "migrants." It's important to figure out; but whatever we say will please some and not others. 

Not trying to stir up any pots here. Just trying to illustrate how what seems evident at first blush may not be so clear with a little digging.

For example, switching back to stocks, the Industrials rose mightily along with the S&P. along with them. But there's the little rub of the Transports badly lagging the Industrials. And there's a long history of divergences between the Industrials and Transports signalling trouble ahead. The term used is "non-confirmation." When both averages do not confirm, for example, a higher high, then we must consider the average that hit the new high suspect.

As for the migrant mush - and it surely is at least that - the assertion that most seek a better life is an easy assertion, right. They can't all be criminals. But here's the rub: If we know that some are criminals - worse terrorists - then doesn't it behoove the government to better monitor who they're letting into the country?

Of course it does. But the government at the moment doesn't do this. Dispute this? Don't know what to say. Even the folks charged with patrolling the borders have been raising their voices about this - never mind the Americans who live along the border.

So the issue doesn't seem to be how many of these migrants are criminals (or terrorists) out of the total. The issue is the entire way they arrive on our shores. And the back and forth over how many want a better life, how many are no good is a great diversion from the real issue.

There's a serious divergence here, between what is presented in the media and what's actually going on. What's actually going on does not confirm the whole folks-looking-for-a-better-life thesis. Even if such folks exist (and it's likely they do), the bad apples are the issue. And they're easily sneaking in under cover because of a lax - some say criminally negligent - government handling of one of its main responsibilities: security of our borders.

There is, of course, lots of emotions that accompany all this migrant chatter.

Now it's up to each of us to consider all the evidence, and set aside the emotions. Take stock of all that's going on, especially those divergences. 

If you come up with going all in on stocks, that's your choice. Live with your decision.

If you come up with let 'em all come in, well, I was going to say that's your choice. But I'm afraid that it impacts all of us, in varying degrees to be sure, but at some level all of us. So perhaps your decision has a greater impact that going all in on stocks.

Then again, if you go all in on stocks, that'll likely drive the market even higher. And if the divergences still have some credence, that may in the end impact all of us if the market tumbles violently. 

Remember 2008?

On a more uplifting note, it's the Feast of St. Scholastica. Her brother, the great St. Benedict, testified that when she died he saw her soul ascend into heaven in the form of a dove. May we all be so blessed.