All Quiet Before the New Year
It should be rather quiet this week in the world's markets. People take off between Christmas and New Year's Day. What next year brings isn't really something we can know with much certainty, but people will soon (if not already) be pumping out forecasts. I only pay attention to a few people I know to have been fairly reliable in the past. And their forecasts are usually modest.
Rather than indulge our thoughts in what we can't really know, it's a good time to take a break, get some rest and recreation, visit and celebrate these wonderful holidays with family and friends. 2012 will arrive right on schedule. Ideally, you're already prepared for whatever might happen.
Don't be surprised if the few active traders working this week push the stock market up so that it ends the year in positive territory. That seems to be the short-term trend right now.
Don't be surprised if gold doesn't do much of anything, or maybe gets pushed down a bit this week. There may still be liquidations by some hedge funds looking for cash to satisfy clients cashing out of funds whose performance has been poor - and there's certainly no shortage of those. Even the famous John Paulson, the guy who made billions shorting sub-prime a few years back, has had a horrendous year. And he's probably been liquidating his large gold position to get cash in anticipation of clients giving up on him.
One more thing: the TED Spread has continued edging up despite all the talk of the European debt crisis easing. So a liquidity event continues to loom somewhere out there, perhaps in 2012. We'll talk more about this soon.
For now, I'm looking forward to more family and friends, with a touch of work here and there - a Christmas-NewYear's break from the ordinary cares of life. So for now,
Rather than indulge our thoughts in what we can't really know, it's a good time to take a break, get some rest and recreation, visit and celebrate these wonderful holidays with family and friends. 2012 will arrive right on schedule. Ideally, you're already prepared for whatever might happen.
Don't be surprised if the few active traders working this week push the stock market up so that it ends the year in positive territory. That seems to be the short-term trend right now.
Don't be surprised if gold doesn't do much of anything, or maybe gets pushed down a bit this week. There may still be liquidations by some hedge funds looking for cash to satisfy clients cashing out of funds whose performance has been poor - and there's certainly no shortage of those. Even the famous John Paulson, the guy who made billions shorting sub-prime a few years back, has had a horrendous year. And he's probably been liquidating his large gold position to get cash in anticipation of clients giving up on him.
One more thing: the TED Spread has continued edging up despite all the talk of the European debt crisis easing. So a liquidity event continues to loom somewhere out there, perhaps in 2012. We'll talk more about this soon.
For now, I'm looking forward to more family and friends, with a touch of work here and there - a Christmas-NewYear's break from the ordinary cares of life. So for now,
Merry Christmas!
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