Dire Forecast for Europe
An analyst with UBS just published a rather dire forecast for Europe...and the rest of the world. I won't link to it - not because it's scary but because it comes from a Wall Street analyst.
I've been most forthright in my views that the European debt crisis isn't being solved or even adequately addressed. I don't expect the fundamental problems to be solved anytime soon. And, yes, I believe that it's prudent to prepare - in some way - for the worst.
But when a mainstream Wall Street analyst published a TEOTWAWKI (the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it) piece, I'm skeptical of their intentions. If they really believed what they were saying was true, I suspect UBS would have fired them by now. After all, UBS won't make money if its clients head for the hills. So I ask myself why UBS hasn't fired this person and what they're all up to.
It's not like these folks have any credibility, of course. The greatest financial collapse of our lifetimes (so far) took place in 2007-2008 and surprised them all. None of these firms had prepared their clients in any substantive way. None of them sent out any warnings.
So whatever this person is predicting probably won't happen. That's why I'm not linking to it and not paying any attention to it.
You have to think UBS feels it could get some good publicity from this. On the other hand, if UBS does fire this person, maybe I'll take a second look.
Then again, I don't really need to. The European Union, as currently constructed, doesn't work anymore. It's as simple as that. It will have to be changed if it is to survive.
But what really has to change is the governments of these countries. They've made promises to their citizens they can't keep. They spend more money than they have to distribute goodies today to their citizens, which keeps the politicians in office today. They make promises to their citizens about goodies they'll collect in the future and that lets them run for re-election and stay in office.
When you read about "austerity" measures, you're reading about governments cutting services. Basically they're cutting out some of the goodies they promised that they can't afford and couldn't afford when they proposed them. They position these austerity measures as something they're being "forced" to do. They don't accept responsibility for having made the false promises in the first place.
So even if the current crisis doesn't lead to the end of the world, unless this fundamental, phony self-serving way of governing changes, the problem will not be solved. It will come back again and again to haunt Europe.
And, sadly, we can say the same for our dear country as well.
Meanwhile, the UBS analyst - if he's doing his company's bidding - should stand to collect a nice bonus this year, I suspect.
I've been most forthright in my views that the European debt crisis isn't being solved or even adequately addressed. I don't expect the fundamental problems to be solved anytime soon. And, yes, I believe that it's prudent to prepare - in some way - for the worst.
But when a mainstream Wall Street analyst published a TEOTWAWKI (the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it) piece, I'm skeptical of their intentions. If they really believed what they were saying was true, I suspect UBS would have fired them by now. After all, UBS won't make money if its clients head for the hills. So I ask myself why UBS hasn't fired this person and what they're all up to.
It's not like these folks have any credibility, of course. The greatest financial collapse of our lifetimes (so far) took place in 2007-2008 and surprised them all. None of these firms had prepared their clients in any substantive way. None of them sent out any warnings.
So whatever this person is predicting probably won't happen. That's why I'm not linking to it and not paying any attention to it.
You have to think UBS feels it could get some good publicity from this. On the other hand, if UBS does fire this person, maybe I'll take a second look.
Then again, I don't really need to. The European Union, as currently constructed, doesn't work anymore. It's as simple as that. It will have to be changed if it is to survive.
But what really has to change is the governments of these countries. They've made promises to their citizens they can't keep. They spend more money than they have to distribute goodies today to their citizens, which keeps the politicians in office today. They make promises to their citizens about goodies they'll collect in the future and that lets them run for re-election and stay in office.
When you read about "austerity" measures, you're reading about governments cutting services. Basically they're cutting out some of the goodies they promised that they can't afford and couldn't afford when they proposed them. They position these austerity measures as something they're being "forced" to do. They don't accept responsibility for having made the false promises in the first place.
So even if the current crisis doesn't lead to the end of the world, unless this fundamental, phony self-serving way of governing changes, the problem will not be solved. It will come back again and again to haunt Europe.
And, sadly, we can say the same for our dear country as well.
Meanwhile, the UBS analyst - if he's doing his company's bidding - should stand to collect a nice bonus this year, I suspect.
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