A Quick Note About the Stock Market on This Black Friday
So the day before Thanksgiving ended with yet another record high in the stock market:
On the other hand, given the astounding fact that we're already three years without a 10% correction in the Dow - something that has not shown up in our charts going back to 1885 - we may either be approaching the top of this bull market, or at least looking at something resembling a real correction, probably not this year, but sometime in early 2015.
But why think ahead that far, especially on this Friday after Thanksgiving? Relax. Enjoy.
U.S. stocks rose, with benchmark indexes closing at all-time highs, amid optimism the economy is showing sufficient strength to weather a slowdown overseas.And why? Well, according to one expert, things are looking up:
“Economic numbers in general have been good, and that optimism is following through,” Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion, said in a phone interview. “It could be a good retail season, and low gas prices are making a difference.”Except that the traditional relationship between the economy and the stock market, rather than being one where the stock market reacts to economic news of perceived conditions, is one where the market looks forward and gives us some incite into what's coming up. In which case, my guess would be that some good things will be happening in the economy in the next 6 months or so.
On the other hand, given the astounding fact that we're already three years without a 10% correction in the Dow - something that has not shown up in our charts going back to 1885 - we may either be approaching the top of this bull market, or at least looking at something resembling a real correction, probably not this year, but sometime in early 2015.
But why think ahead that far, especially on this Friday after Thanksgiving? Relax. Enjoy.
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