Comparing Things to When the C-Virus Mess Began a Year Ago

Our C-Virus Mess began a little over a year ago. A year later, we're being inundated with comparisons of then vs. now.

Now that more folks are taking the jab, talk turns to recovery. The economy is expected to roar back (not recover, but roar back). You'd almost thing nothing was going on until the jabbing commenced. That's not true, of course, but it does encourage more jabbing. And, as we've been told over and over, once everyone is jabbed, things will get back to "normal." Right.

More and more, we're hearing about economic upturn in one area after the other. Things are getting "better" they tell us. For example, more folks are being hired back. Airline ticket sales are down "only" 38% from last year - more folks now flying apparently. Let's consider each.

A year ago, because of government lock-down policies, more people lost their jobs in a shorter period of time than had ever occurred in this country. Millions remain unemployed. But, for some reason, the fact some of those folks who lost their jobs have been hired back becomes a sign that we're on the verge of an economy ready to roar. 

Airline travel completely collapsed a year ago. Until recently, flyers were down over 75%. The only reason tens of thousands of airline workers didn't lose their jobs was the federal government provided hundreds of millions to "save" the airlines. (As if every company would go out of business, and the planes would be left to rust on the runways of America.) So - again - because of the jabbing, more folks are flying. No mention is made of the perking up of what was a dead economy. It's all because of the jab. And it's another sign the economy is ready to roar.

Do either of these really make a lot of sense? Industries - like the airlines - that were shoved into the grave because of lock-downs have been dug up and slowly laboriously pulled up from the darkness into the light. After the greatest collapse of employment in the history of the country, people are being hired back in almost dead and dormant industries and business.

Does any of this "roar"?

Next, we can expect stunning numbers to be published that will be touted as signs of a "boom." We're already seeing these. GDP up 8.4% - an estimate already published - would be the biggest rise in GDP ever. But shouldn't we expect such numbers after GDP declined more than ever previously? 

If I'm walking briskly and break out into a trot, there's an increase on activity. If I've been sitting on the couch unmoved and get up and walk around the living, the rate of increase would be higher. But which is the more vigorous activity?

Some of those business sectors that were not buried and left for dead have shown improvement - some, but not all. Those that did - e.g. Amazon, much of the tech industry - benefited from the lock-downs and people being quarantined. You don't need an analyst to explain why. Folks curtailed shopping in stores and ordered more online. Being stuck at home increased the use of technology, both by those working from home, those who lost their jobs and just spent more time online, as well as students who were prevented from going to class.

The "roar" - whether you hear it or not - will be amplified. Will the amped-up cheer-leading lift us out of the pit into a new multi-year economic boom?With all the talk, anything less will be a disappointment.