Looking Back to Pre-Pandemic Days Isn't Too Encouraging

 I was just looking back to last year, related to Lent. Things were "normal." Got ashes on Ash Wednesday, started working on Lenten discipline: prayer, penance, almsgiving. These are the traditional ways to observe Lent. They're known as the Three Pillars of Lent.

And incorporating as much of that discipline into the work day, in a reverent, conscious manner was part of that. Typically, one of the challenges for a Catholic man at work has been bringing your faith, and your religious piety to work with you. Given how busy we can get during a typical work day, it's not uncommon to leave God behind when the day's work begins. And when you run a business, and you're always "on" it can be even more challenging to keep God's Presence alive as you go about your business. 

So last Lent found me, as usual, trying to establish some standards for keeping God in my work.

Then everything unraveled.

The lock-downs and fear rose up and took center stage. Churches were locked down along with everything else. Just keeping your mind on your work each day - assuming you didn't lose your job - became a major challenge to may of us - never mind making sure God was there right beside you.

That was last year.

Things have changed a bit this year. Ash Wednesday kicked things off, as usual. Lock downs aren't as draconian, but they're still hanging around. Keeping my mind on my work hasn't been particularly difficult. The C-Virus Mess had some impact, but nothing terrible. By now, any adjustments I've had to make have developed into set habits. 

That brings us to today. Wealth management - our business - faces special challenges. Right off the bat, we've got the rumors of tax changes hanging over us. Since comprehensive wealth management includes planning (retirement, estate, investment, tax, etc.), change sometimes entails changing plans. Of course, until something definite comes across the transom, all we can do is keep our antennae up to catch any definitive proposals and/or decisions. For now, we can only alert clients to what they may face in the not too distant future.

Then there's investing. It's been knocked silly by government and Federal Reserve policy and actions. Historical "stimulus' packages - one done, one to come - distort our ability to read the economy. If government subsidies provide the unemployed, businesses, and others with layers of sort of or semi-security, we don't really know how bad things have gotten since the you-know-what hit the fan a year ago. With at least 18 million still unemployed, it's hard to buy the story that the economy has/will bounce right back when more people are vaccinated. Of course, it's understandable that some support might be provided to those in need. But it still prevents us from seeing the reality behind the political slogans.

As for the markets and how we should invest our money, things aren't any clearer. Despite the ersatz theories about how markets really aren't in a bubble - or at least not a really serious one - most of us know that's nonsense. We may even be in a MOAB - Mother of all bubbles. 

But whether it's the mother, or one of her prodigal sons, values are at elevated (at best), ridiculously blown up levels at worst. And we all know what happens to bubbles. The only thing we can't be sure about is exactly what happens when the inevitable burst occurs.

And looking back before the C-Virus Mess began doesn't provide much of a constructive perspective, never mind any consolation. Those who think the economy was roaring pre-COVID (Trumps "greatest economy ever") weren't paying close attention. And markets were already precarious - if not pumped up to quite the current bubble levels. Remember how the Fed had to intervene with massive amount of liquidity by printing massive blobs of money to support the overnight repo markets, ultimately money markets in general? That was way back in the fall of 2019. 

Think hard, if you've forgotten because they never let up. They're still printing like crazy. And now it's to support all markets: stocks, bonds, real estate, along with money markets.

Things just weren't good going into the pandemic collapse.

So if the present is wobbly, and the past doesn't give us anything to lift our spirits, what of the future? Of course, that's unknowable with certainty. But we've got to at least consider the possibilities. An investment analyst I respect recently suggested we can't predict, but we can prepare. 

I suggest that's good advice.