What We Shouldn't Expect When This Mess Ends

Not that I talk about it much, but I've had a few conversations about our C-Virus Mess ending. Optimists think it's happening right now. The argument seems based on any let up in lock-downs plus - drum-roll - the jab.

The jab has taken center stage ever since Trump bragged about how fast his administration was able to push its development and distribution - "Operation Something-or-Other." Never had a powerful drug been developed and brought to market so quickly. 

At the time, Trump-haters weren't impressed. Now that he's out of office, it seems they all can't wait to get stuck. Make sense? It does if your life revolved around either loving or hating Trump. 

Stepping way from that nonsensical madness, the fact is it's somewhat sensible to think the Mess will end, right? Even the most skeptical of us has to hope so, no? So let's assume that sooner or later masks, distancing, jabs, etc., etc., all go away. We'll all get back to doing and enjoying things we did year ago.

Fair enough. But a recent conversation reminded me that there were trends in place having nothing to do the Mess. 

For example, a long-running trend of spending more time at home, rather than at public venues had already gained traction. Just think about how lots of people - especially kids and young adults were already sequestered in their rooms with their video screens. The lock-downs may have "forced" some to do this, but many already had taken up the habit.

A few more, all of which spiked when governments closed down the "in-person" economy:

• Shopping online
• Ordering meals/not cooking at home
• Social Media replacing face-to-face contact
• Working from home
• Disrespect for police/Increased crime in many cities
• Decreased attendance at some professional sports venues - the NFL and MLB, for instance.

Then there's the dysfunctional stock market. I think most people have a sense that what's been going on in the stock market makes little sense, based on traditional considerations. Fundamentals already began pointing to an overvalued market when stocks collapsed after the lock-downs began. (Remember? It was just about a year ago.) At the time we heard that a "Black Swan" had pulled the rug out. Maybe the breathtaking drop in only a few weeks was unusual. But some had already warned of impending doom - or at least a stiff correction. 

So when things get back to "normal," I suspect some will be surprised when trends already in place simply continue heading toward their previously established destinations.

Of course, if we can at least get back to spending relaxed time with family and friends - together in one place (indoors as well as outdoors) that would certainly appeal to me. It's the only part of life as it was that I can say I miss.

Now, when it comes to financial markets, timing of corrections and/or reversals of long-term trends has been skewed by the Mess. Skewed but not cancelled. We may be in for some excitement as the year goes on, whatever the state of recovery from this Mess.