Does Summer Bloom Explain New Jobs Jump to 280,000?
Many economists blamed the bitter cold of our recent winter winter for every dip in the economy, whether it be jobs, housing, GDP - whatever. The cold froze the economic blood of Americans such that they couldn't shop, couldn't work, couldn't build their business, pretty much couldn't do anything. At least that was the story.
So now that the jobs number jumped up to an "unexpected" 280,000 it seems only natural to ask whether the warm summer weather accounts for this highly-trumpeted "good" news, just as the winter's cold supposedly accounted for the "bad" news of recent months. Here in the Northeast, for example, we've had a string of virtually perfect spring and summer weather weekend after weekend. I can't remember that last time weekends were so wonderful - at least weather-wise...really. For example, in one recent e-mail exchange, a professional colleague commented that he couldn't remember such great weekend weather since he was a kid - which was a long, loooonnngg time ago.
Think about it. The wonderful weekends inspires all of us consumers to get out there and, well, stir up all sorts of economic activity to fuel our active weekend lives. And not only do our weekends build up our productive consumer activity, but our vacations also build our economic muscle we we not only take our rest during weekends and vacation, but "recreate" ourselves too. A simple look at the definition of "recreation" explains why.
Here's the primary meaning of "recreation," and how most of us use this word: "activity done for enjoyment when one is not working." But there's a secondary definition which illustrates how the economy could be fired up by good weather. It comes from the word's origin in Middle English via Old French, which took its meaning from the Latin recreatio (noun) with the verb recreara meaning "create again, renew."
I submit the secondary definition describes a much richer use of "recreation." We're not here focused so much on going to the beach, wandering around an amusement park, or cruising to "the islands" on one of those luxurious ships that offer pleasures a-plenty. In and of themselves, of course, such activities feed the economic engine as we actively and enthusiastically spend our time and money feeding those enterprises that benefit from Americans on vacation. But even more than that, perhaps millions of Americans - at least here in the Northeast - may be "recreating" themselves every weekend, even more so on extended weekends like this past 4th of July weekend, and even more during extended time on vacation. We're just rip-roaring raring-to-go in our re-created state, consumers marching in lock-step with our economic muscles bulging, doing what we Americans do best: spending our money on stuff.
Well, maybe my imagination's getting the best of me. But I'm willing to admit that imagination can lead not only to creative thinking, but also to pure fantasy. And so maybe the great weather isn't the only reason that the jobs numbers jumped to 280,000. Then again, if winter freeze explained the recent sad economic doldrums, why not summer's glorious thaw explain the happy economic news we're were just fed last week?
The point here is this: When things looked more dismal, the winter's cold was the reason. Economists simply pointed to the effect of unusually cold - and therefore economically unfriendly - weather on economic activity and said that such an effect would not last, once the cold passed. So why wouldn't the opposite hold true? If the weather's now extraordinarily "friendly" - possibly resulting in unusually positive effects - then shouldn't economists now say that such positive results are only a temporary condition, driven by unusually "happy" weather effects? Of course they won't, simply because the game is minimize negative trends and emphasize positive trends - no matter the reality lurking under the surface.
Reason dictates that we discount not only the negative news, but the positive. Looked at another way, it's simply commons sense to do so.
So now that the jobs number jumped up to an "unexpected" 280,000 it seems only natural to ask whether the warm summer weather accounts for this highly-trumpeted "good" news, just as the winter's cold supposedly accounted for the "bad" news of recent months. Here in the Northeast, for example, we've had a string of virtually perfect spring and summer weather weekend after weekend. I can't remember that last time weekends were so wonderful - at least weather-wise...really. For example, in one recent e-mail exchange, a professional colleague commented that he couldn't remember such great weekend weather since he was a kid - which was a long, loooonnngg time ago.
Think about it. The wonderful weekends inspires all of us consumers to get out there and, well, stir up all sorts of economic activity to fuel our active weekend lives. And not only do our weekends build up our productive consumer activity, but our vacations also build our economic muscle we we not only take our rest during weekends and vacation, but "recreate" ourselves too. A simple look at the definition of "recreation" explains why.
Here's the primary meaning of "recreation," and how most of us use this word: "activity done for enjoyment when one is not working." But there's a secondary definition which illustrates how the economy could be fired up by good weather. It comes from the word's origin in Middle English via Old French, which took its meaning from the Latin recreatio (noun) with the verb recreara meaning "create again, renew."
I submit the secondary definition describes a much richer use of "recreation." We're not here focused so much on going to the beach, wandering around an amusement park, or cruising to "the islands" on one of those luxurious ships that offer pleasures a-plenty. In and of themselves, of course, such activities feed the economic engine as we actively and enthusiastically spend our time and money feeding those enterprises that benefit from Americans on vacation. But even more than that, perhaps millions of Americans - at least here in the Northeast - may be "recreating" themselves every weekend, even more so on extended weekends like this past 4th of July weekend, and even more during extended time on vacation. We're just rip-roaring raring-to-go in our re-created state, consumers marching in lock-step with our economic muscles bulging, doing what we Americans do best: spending our money on stuff.
Well, maybe my imagination's getting the best of me. But I'm willing to admit that imagination can lead not only to creative thinking, but also to pure fantasy. And so maybe the great weather isn't the only reason that the jobs numbers jumped to 280,000. Then again, if winter freeze explained the recent sad economic doldrums, why not summer's glorious thaw explain the happy economic news we're were just fed last week?
The point here is this: When things looked more dismal, the winter's cold was the reason. Economists simply pointed to the effect of unusually cold - and therefore economically unfriendly - weather on economic activity and said that such an effect would not last, once the cold passed. So why wouldn't the opposite hold true? If the weather's now extraordinarily "friendly" - possibly resulting in unusually positive effects - then shouldn't economists now say that such positive results are only a temporary condition, driven by unusually "happy" weather effects? Of course they won't, simply because the game is minimize negative trends and emphasize positive trends - no matter the reality lurking under the surface.
Reason dictates that we discount not only the negative news, but the positive. Looked at another way, it's simply commons sense to do so.
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