Did the Supreme Court Really Save Obamacare?
The Supreme Court saved Obamacare on June 28th. Obvious, right? Hold on a minute. One of the commentaries I read notes that the language of the ruling will allow future court challenges. So that means that while SCOTUS saved Obamacare on June 28th, they didn't really save it.
But do you really think that future court challenges will overturn the bill? I'm not so sure. Didn't we all hear how this current ruling would overturn the bill? And what happened? It didn't overturn the bill. So just because some legal "authority" claims that future challenges were enabled by the wording of this ruling doesn't necessarily mean that those challenges will succeed.
Here's what I think right now.
The one realistic way that Obamacare could be overturned will be if Republicans take the both the Senate and the House and the Presidency this November. Indeed, the Republicans are already crowing that they will overturn Obamacare if they get the majority.
Of course, just getting the majority won't do the trick. They actually have to take action to overturn Obamacare. And I wouldn't count on that happening.
Remember all the stuff Gingrich was going to do if the Republicans took the House in 1994. He published something called "Contract with America." He was going to lead a kind of revolution against the liberal Democrat Clinton.
Well, Gingrich did become Speaker of the House when the Republicans became the majority party as a result of the 1994. As for the revolution, it never happened. Not only didn't it happen, but Gingrich wound up having to resign as Speaker of the House. So much for promises and revolutions.
Does that mean that the Republicans won't overturn Obamacare if elected to the majority of the House and Senate? No. But don't expect Democrats to take it lying down. They will do all they can to whip up the people into thinking that the Republicans want to overturn their great "reform" of healthcare. And if they succeed in whipping people up to the point where the constituents of the Republicans in power demand that they don't overturn Obamacare, then the Republicans in power won't overturn Obamacare. Remember, politicians, if nothing else, want to be re-elected.
It won't matter that they promised to do it, because they will just claim that they are acting in accord with the "Will of the People." They'll forget all about their promises.
I'm not saying this will happen. There are a lot of "ifs" in these scenarios. But I am saying don't be surprised.
Besides, by the time the newly elected representatives are seated in Congress in 2013, people will have had time with this new "entitlement" - which is what Obamacare really is. And people don't like giving up any entitlements.
One thing I'm not sure of is how much the newly launched Obamacare bureaucracy will have grown. If the bill stands, I do know that a huge bureaucracy will be created. I don't know how big it is now, and I don't know how big it might be then in 2013. What I do know is that there are virtually no examples of a federal bureaucracy - once it comes into existence and gets to be big - has ever been dismantled.
That's another reason to be skeptical about politicians overturning Obamacare. They may wind up having a lot of their constituents employed or prospectively employed by the federal bureaucracy that's created for Obamacare.
Anyway, don't hold your breath. Right now I'd say the easy money's on Obamacare staying alive. SCOTUS may not have saved it permanently with that June 28th ruling, but it's sure got a lot going for it.
But do you really think that future court challenges will overturn the bill? I'm not so sure. Didn't we all hear how this current ruling would overturn the bill? And what happened? It didn't overturn the bill. So just because some legal "authority" claims that future challenges were enabled by the wording of this ruling doesn't necessarily mean that those challenges will succeed.
Here's what I think right now.
The one realistic way that Obamacare could be overturned will be if Republicans take the both the Senate and the House and the Presidency this November. Indeed, the Republicans are already crowing that they will overturn Obamacare if they get the majority.
Of course, just getting the majority won't do the trick. They actually have to take action to overturn Obamacare. And I wouldn't count on that happening.
Remember all the stuff Gingrich was going to do if the Republicans took the House in 1994. He published something called "Contract with America." He was going to lead a kind of revolution against the liberal Democrat Clinton.
Well, Gingrich did become Speaker of the House when the Republicans became the majority party as a result of the 1994. As for the revolution, it never happened. Not only didn't it happen, but Gingrich wound up having to resign as Speaker of the House. So much for promises and revolutions.
Does that mean that the Republicans won't overturn Obamacare if elected to the majority of the House and Senate? No. But don't expect Democrats to take it lying down. They will do all they can to whip up the people into thinking that the Republicans want to overturn their great "reform" of healthcare. And if they succeed in whipping people up to the point where the constituents of the Republicans in power demand that they don't overturn Obamacare, then the Republicans in power won't overturn Obamacare. Remember, politicians, if nothing else, want to be re-elected.
It won't matter that they promised to do it, because they will just claim that they are acting in accord with the "Will of the People." They'll forget all about their promises.
I'm not saying this will happen. There are a lot of "ifs" in these scenarios. But I am saying don't be surprised.
Besides, by the time the newly elected representatives are seated in Congress in 2013, people will have had time with this new "entitlement" - which is what Obamacare really is. And people don't like giving up any entitlements.
One thing I'm not sure of is how much the newly launched Obamacare bureaucracy will have grown. If the bill stands, I do know that a huge bureaucracy will be created. I don't know how big it is now, and I don't know how big it might be then in 2013. What I do know is that there are virtually no examples of a federal bureaucracy - once it comes into existence and gets to be big - has ever been dismantled.
That's another reason to be skeptical about politicians overturning Obamacare. They may wind up having a lot of their constituents employed or prospectively employed by the federal bureaucracy that's created for Obamacare.
Anyway, don't hold your breath. Right now I'd say the easy money's on Obamacare staying alive. SCOTUS may not have saved it permanently with that June 28th ruling, but it's sure got a lot going for it.
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